Complete withdrawal of AFSPA from Northeast will take time

Northeast CMs made it clear that withdrawal of AFSPA would depend on the law and order situation given that several militant groups in Assam, Manipur and Nagaland are still active

Militancy in the Northeast is down but not over. This was, perhaps, the message loud and clear in the Centre's decision on March 31 to reduce the areas under the controversial Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958 (AFSPA) from the Northeast.

While CMs in the Northeastern states belonging to BJP and its allies called the decision 'momentous,' the same led human-rights activists to reiterate their long demand for a complete withdrawal of the AFSPA from the region. The CMs, however, while welcoming the decision made it clear that complete withdrawal of the AFSPA would depend on the law and order situation given the fact that several major militant groups in Assam, Manipur and Nagaland are still active and are bent on their demand for "secession" despite repeated calls to join the peace process.

"A lot depends on people's support to further improve law and order so that the AFSPA can be withdrawn from the entire state," Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma told reporters hours after Home Minister Amit Shah announced that areas under the AFSPA in Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh would be reduced from April 1.

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Peace in Assam and Manipur:

Although over 9,000 cadres belonging to several insurgent groups in Assam including all factions of the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), in the Bodoland region, Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao have bid farewell to arms since 2020, Ulfa (I), the biggest militant group in the region is still active, particularly in eastern Assam districts sharing a border with Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh. The Ulfa-I is believed to be using these areas also as a transit to their hideouts in neighbouring Myanmar.

Similarly, the government is waiting for the signing of the final agreement with Dimasa National Liberation Army (DNLA), another group in central Assam's Dima Hasao district, which laid down their weapons recently. These are the reasons cited by Sarma for keeping the AFSPA in nine districts: Karbi Anglong, West Karbi Anglong, Dima Hasao (Central Assam), Dibrugarh, Tinsukia, Charaideo, Sivasagar, Golagha, Jorhat districts (eastern Assam) and Lakhipur sub-division in South Assam's Cachar district.

The AFSPA has been withdrawn from 23 districts comprising 60 per cent of areas in Assam, where the act has been extended 60 times since 1990 to contain militancy. Sarma has several times appealed to Ulfa-I chief Paresh Baruah to join peace talks but the insurgent leader has insisted on a discussion on its demand for "sovereignty." This has been rejected by the government.

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In Manipur, the AFSPA has been withdrawn from areas under 15 police stations in six districts. But the decision regarding 10 other districts will take time given the fact that several insurgent groups like the People's Liberation Army (PLA), United National Liberation Front (UNLF), Prepak and Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP) are still active and are unwilling to join peace talks. Most of them are bent on their demand for "secession."

PLA and another new insurgent group had killed a colonel of Assam Rifles, his wife, son and four other jawans in November last year. Security agencies are also worried over the activities of NSCN in Manipur's hills districts. Manipur CM N. Biren Singh on March 31 also said that further withdrawal of the AFSPA depends on the law order situation. The AFSPA is in force in Manipur since 2004 and the state has witnessed strong protests against it.

Stalemate in Naga talks:

The withdrawal of the AFSPA from the entire Nagaland, parts of Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh depends on how soon the Centre and the Naga rebel groups can sign the "final agreement" to end the six-decades-long Naga conflict. The NSCN-IM and Naga National Political Groups (a forum of seven other rebel groups) signed a preliminary agreement in 2015 and 2017 respectively as "broad frameworks" for signing the final agreement.

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But the same is stuck mainly due to NSCN-IM's insistence on its "core demands" for a separate flag and Constitution for the Nagas, which has been turned down by the Centre. NSCN-IM general secretary, Thuingaleng Muivah's allegation on March 26 and 27 that the Centre was "going back on its words" and "misinterpreting" what have been mutually agreed upon in the "framework agreement" added a twist to the road to peace in Nagaland.

The AFSPA has been withdrawn from areas under 15 out of 72 police stations in Nagaland. CM Neiphiu Rio on April 4 stated that the AFSPA would instead be re-instated if the state fails to maintain law and order.

Although the rebel groups in Nagaland are in a ceasefire for years, security agencies claim that the "activities" of these groups are still on in Nagaland and in Naga-inhibited areas in Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. The Centre on March 31 also extended the "disturbed area" tag for Tirap, Changlang and Longding districts and from areas under Namsai and Mahadevpur police stations in Namsai district in Arunachal Pradesh, under the AFSPA.

Two days later, two local youths were injured in firing by Army at Chasa village in Tirap district, in what was soon called by the army a case of "mistaken identity." The incident again triggered demand for withdrawal of the AFSPA from the district.

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