<p>Doubling the <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/state/in-covid-19-vaccine-milestone-karnataka-covers-50-of-target-population-with-first-dose-1017700.html" target="_blank">vaccination rate</a> will reduce the probability of a third Covid wave and reduce the active case load 10 fold, researchers have informed the state Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC).</p>.<p>Attendees at a meeting held with members of TAC on August 3 included researchers from Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Bengaluru.</p>.<p>In their detailed presentations to 20-odd experts from various medical specialities and fields, including the state’s health secretary, they’ve said even the emergence of new variants after September this year will not induce the third Covid wave, provided there is good social distancing like in a lockdown-like scenario.</p>.<p>Dr Sashikumar Ganesan, Department of Computational and Data Sciences, IISc, one of the three researchers who briefed TAC told <span class="italic">DH</span>, “If vaccination is doubled, active cases will reduced 10-fold. If the new variant comes in August, then a third Covid wave will happen for sure. But if it gets delayed to October or November, then the wave may not be severe as vaccination coverage would be high by then.”</p>.<p>“We’ve developed an ensemble forecast with 972 scenarios based on seven control variables. The new immune-escape variant was responsible for the second Covid wave. Emergence of new variants and poor social distancing are most likely to be the main reasons for the third Covid wave,” he said.</p>.<p>Ganesan explained that increase in vaccination rate will reduce the peak active caseload in the third Covid wave, and consequently, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and oxygen requirements will decrease. </p>.<p><strong>Check out DH's latest videos:</strong></p>
<p>Doubling the <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/state/in-covid-19-vaccine-milestone-karnataka-covers-50-of-target-population-with-first-dose-1017700.html" target="_blank">vaccination rate</a> will reduce the probability of a third Covid wave and reduce the active case load 10 fold, researchers have informed the state Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC).</p>.<p>Attendees at a meeting held with members of TAC on August 3 included researchers from Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), Bengaluru.</p>.<p>In their detailed presentations to 20-odd experts from various medical specialities and fields, including the state’s health secretary, they’ve said even the emergence of new variants after September this year will not induce the third Covid wave, provided there is good social distancing like in a lockdown-like scenario.</p>.<p>Dr Sashikumar Ganesan, Department of Computational and Data Sciences, IISc, one of the three researchers who briefed TAC told <span class="italic">DH</span>, “If vaccination is doubled, active cases will reduced 10-fold. If the new variant comes in August, then a third Covid wave will happen for sure. But if it gets delayed to October or November, then the wave may not be severe as vaccination coverage would be high by then.”</p>.<p>“We’ve developed an ensemble forecast with 972 scenarios based on seven control variables. The new immune-escape variant was responsible for the second Covid wave. Emergence of new variants and poor social distancing are most likely to be the main reasons for the third Covid wave,” he said.</p>.<p>Ganesan explained that increase in vaccination rate will reduce the peak active caseload in the third Covid wave, and consequently, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and oxygen requirements will decrease. </p>.<p><strong>Check out DH's latest videos:</strong></p>
