JD(S) must read writing on wall if it’s not to be written off

Nobody took them lightly, but the Janata Dal (Secular), the state’s only mainstream regional party, is on the cusp of facing the biggest nightmare for any political outfit: obscurity. 

Displaying sheer repudiation, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah said in the Assembly recently that the JD(S), his former party, would be reduced to just 2-3 seats in the next election.

“It’s better for you merge your party with BJP,” the CM told JD(S) floor leader C B Suresh Babu. 

Only one JD(S) lawmaker, and it was not Babu, stood up to Siddaramaiah’s doomsaying about the regional party.

“He shouldn’t speak in a manner that belittles our party,” first-time Sidlaghatta MLA B N Ravikumar said. The irony here was that Siddaramaiah did not even recognise the JD(S) MLA. 

Is the JD(S), headed by former prime minister H D Deve Gowda, losing its legacy? Who is really in charge? Will the party merge with BJP? These have become common questions in political circles.

From having won 58 seats in 2004, the JD(S) suffered a massive setback in the 2023 Assembly polls by winning a mere 19 seats (it now has 18), losing ground in much of the old Mysuru region, its strongest turf. Its vote share shrunk to 13.3% from 18.36% in 2018. 

The JD(S) is recovering from the severe political and personal damage caused by former Hassan MP Prajwal Revanna’s conviction in a rape case, which forced his grandfather Deve Gowda to slip into silence.

Prajwal’s father H D Revanna is not actively seen in party activities even as the party faces a challenge in Hassan, Gowda’s native district. 

Union Minister H D Kumaraswamy is occupied in New Delhi following his induction into Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Cabinet. Most of the heavylifting in terms of building the party’s organisation is being done by Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil, who is toiling to carve out a niche for himself after having lost three elections consecutively. 

Senior lawmaker G T Deve Gowda - he was not made the floor leader in the Assembly - choosing to keep away from JD(S) has impacted the party’s politics in Mysuru region. The Chamundeshwari MLA heads the party’s core committee. 

Late last month, when JD(S) organised a rally in solidarity with Dharmasthala, hope rekindled among party workers who had questions about the way forward. 

The resuscitative alliance with BJP, if it continues into the 2028 Assembly polls, would pose new challenges to JD(S). When it comes to seat-sharing, the regional party will face a problem in Hassan district, for example, where it might have to cede two constituencies - Belur and Sakleshpur - which the BJP won in 2023. The JD(S) candidates in these segments may switch sides. 

“Our party is built from grassroots. Irrespective of who enters or exits, party workers will remain with us,” Babu, the Chikkanayakanahalli MLA, says.

“Our only concern is that the public support we have is not converted into votes during elections.” 

A number of things are being done to revive the party’s fortunes. Kumaraswamy, it is said, holds at least one party-related meeting daily, even if he is in Delhi. 

Drawing inspiration from communists and BJP, the JD(S) is appointing full-time workers across the state. On the ground, the party’s membership drive has resulted in over 20 lakh new enrolments. 

Nikhil is being groomed for the long-run. His task is to build his own team without relying too much on sitting MLAs, former MLAs and prospective MLAs. 

“Although Nikhil is young, workers have accepted him,” former party MLC K A Thippeswamy said.

The party will complete organisational elections and a new state president will be announced, he said. A state-level conference is being planned for newly-elected office-bearers, he said. 

“The process will decide whether Kumaraswamy should continue as the state president or if someone else must be elected," the former MLC said.