Divided colours of Opposition: Multi-way fights, vote split put BJP in driver's seat in Mumbai

Mumbai: Multi-cornered contests, deep divisions within the Opposition MVA, reflected in the Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) fighting separately and lack of a robust plan among its rivals helped the BJP in Mumbai polls as it looks poised to rule India's richest civic body for the first time.

As per trends telecast by TV news channels on Friday evening for 210 of the total 227 seats in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the BJP was leading in 90 seats followed by Shiv Sena (28), Shiv Sena-UBT (57), MNS (9), Congress (15), NCP (3) and others 8.

The BJP contested the January 15 polls in an alliance with the Shiv Sena led by Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, while Shiv Sena (UBT) and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), headed by Uddhav and Raj Thackeray, respectively, had a pre-poll pact. The Congress, part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) along with Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) at the state level, tied with the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and Rashtriya Samaj Paksh (RSP).

The underwhelming performance of the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress has dealt a severe blow to the MVA, exposing deep organizational weaknesses and raising questions about the Opposition bloc's ability to challenge the BJP-led ruling dispensation in Maharashtra.

Political observers pointed out that internal contradictions within the MVA, ideological differences between Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT), personality clashes, and lack of coordinated strategy have undermined the alliance's effectiveness in the polls. The split in the original Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), coupled with the Congress's decision to contest independently, effectively diluted anti-BJP vote share across nearly 200 wards.

The poor showing of the Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) in Mumbai, once considered their stronghold, marks a significant political setback for both parties. For Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), the outcome represents nothing short of a political disaster. The loss of Mumbai, the city that was the launchpad of the original Shiv Sena movement and remained under the party's control for over two decades, symbolizes the dramatic decline in the outfit since the 2022 split.

The analysts said if trends transform into final results, they will vindicate Shinde's claim to being the "real" inheritor of Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray's legacy and suggest that a significant section of traditional party voters have shifted allegiance to the ruling alliance constituent. The debacle could marginalize Uddhav Thackeray within the Opposition bloc. If the MVA regroups later, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, whose party NCP (SP) is also a partner in the alliance, could be sidelined as the Congress has joined hands with VBA and RSP, they said.

The Congress's poor show underscored its continued inability to connect with urban voters, particularly in cosmopolitan Mumbai. Despite being fulcrum of the Opposition alliance at the Centre through the INDIA bloc, the party has failed to translate national-level unity among anti-BJP parties into electoral gains at local level. Party insiders admitted that organizational decay, lack of credible local leadership, and failure to address urban issues have contributed to its lacklustre showing.

The setback has precipitated an existential crisis for the MVA alliance. With both major partners, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress, performing poorly, the coalition's claim to being a credible alternative to the ruling Mahayuti alliance appears increasingly hollow. Both Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress now face the daunting task of organizational rebuilding and strategic rethinking. For Uddhav Thackeray, the challenge is to prove his faction's continued relevance in Maharashtra politics beyond being a partner in the MVA.

According to the observers, the final outcome in BMC polls could trigger realignment within the Opposition camp, with smaller parties potentially reconsidering their alliance options based on the perceived viability of partners.

The analysts pointed to a singular, decisive factor behind the BJP-led Mahayuti's surge past the 100-seat mark — a fragmented Opposition that turned the contest into a series of "friendly fights" and multi-cornered battles. The most glaring division occurred in the traditional Marathi heartlands. While the Shiv Sena (UBT) and MNS formed a tactical front, they were countered not just by the BJP, but by Shinde's Shiv Sena also. In over 80 wards, the two Senas engaged in a slugfest for the same "bow and arrow" legacy.

The Congress's refusal to join the Shiv Sena UBT-MNS combine proved to be the second major blow to the Opposition's prospects. By contesting alone, the Congress aimed to consolidate its minority and Dalit voter base. However, this strategy only served to create a three-way split in secular votes, according to the observers. In several pockets, the presence of Congress candidates, alongside the VBA and the Samajwadi Party (SP), appeared to have acted as a "spoiler" for the Sena (UBT). This fragmentation ensured that the "anti-Mahayuti" sentiment never reached a critical mass, they said.

Reports indicated at least 15 "friendly fights" occurred where alliance partners (anti-BJP parties) fielded candidates against each other. These internal frictions not only confused the electorate but also depleted the Opposition's resources, diverting their focus from challenging the BJP.