Heavy rains to lash Tamil Nadu this week; chances of a cyclone appear remote

Chennai: Tamil Nadu, which was battered by Cyclone Fengal only last week claiming 30 lives across several districts, is expected to be drenched with heavy to very heavy rainfall this week under the influence of a low pressure in Bay of Bengal. 

Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and independent weather bloggers have predicted heavy rains, especially on December 11 and 12, across coastal Tamil Nadu, including Chennai and its neighbouring districts, and Puducherry. 

The rains will continue till December 14, even as heavy rainfall is expected to lash Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur, Cuddalore, Mayiladuthurai, Pudukkottai, Tiruchirappalli, Perambalur, Kallakurichi, Ariyalur, Villupuram, Chengalpattu, Kancheepuram, Chennai, and Tiruvallur districts. 

The low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal with associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 5.8 Km above mean sea level persists and is likely to move west-northwestwards and become more marked during the next 24 hours. “It is very likely to continue to move west-northwestwards thereafter and reach over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri-Lanka–Tamil Nadu coasts around December 11,” the IMD said on Monday.

Independent weather bloggers, whose forecasts were bang on in the past, said the chances of the low pressure strengthening into a cyclone was very remote, though the weather system would bucket down huge rains across coastal Tamil Nadu. 

As the rain threat looms large, the state government on Monday asked the Greater Chennai Corporation commissioner and district collectors to adhere to the Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) for handling disasters, and take up adequate preparedness measures so as to tackle any exigency due to the heavy to very heavy rainfall activity. 

Cyclone Fengal, which took time to make landfall near Puducherry after remaining stationary for several hours, left a trail of destruction from Chengalpattu to Puducherry to Villupuram to Tiruvannamalai to far-away Krishnagiri, affecting about 1.5 crore people in 14 villages.  

Intense rainfall in less time has become the new normal in Tamil Nadu with many localities recording about 50 cm rainfall in less than 24 hours. 

Pradeep John, a popular weather blogger, said one more weather system could make its journey towards Tamil Nadu between December 16 and 18 before the north-east monsoon bids adieu. 

 “Chennai, Kanchipuram, Tiruvallur, and Chengalpattu will witness heavy rains on December 11 and December 12, but they will be manageable. The chances of the system intensifying into a is very less and in the best case, it might become a Depression and won’t sustain like Cyclone Fengal,” John said. 

Ajith Kumar, also a weather blogger, said the weather system will move closer to the Tamil Nadu coast around December 11, mostly as a well-marked low with a slight chance of intensifying into a Depression. He also echoed Pradeep John saying chances of a cyclone developing in this system appear to be slim, and it will be a weaker rain-filled system with widespread rainfall distribution. 

“Chennai, Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, and Chengalpattu will also receive heavy rains. Rains are expected in nearby districts such as Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, and Vellore,” Kumar, who tweets under Chennai Weatherman handle on X, said.