India's Covid-19 vaccine output likely to fall short of target

Production of the Covishield vaccine is expected to reach 10 crore to 11 crore doses a month from July and stay at that level for the foreseeable future

India's output of Covid-19 shots for August-December is likely to be lower than the government's public estimate, according to internal projections shared with Reuters by two sources.

Lower-than-expected production could delay India's plans to vaccinate all its adults this year, amid fears the country will face another surge of coronavirus infections in the winter. India's ongoing second wave, the world's worst since the pandemic began, has overwhelmed its health system.

The government last week publicly estimated 146 crore doses of its three approved shots - AstraZeneca (Covishield), Sputnik V and Covaxin - would be made between August and December.

Production of the Covishield vaccine, of which the Serum Institute of India (SII) is the biggest maker in the world, is expected to reach 10 crore to 11 crore doses a month from July and stay at that level for the foreseeable future, a source with knowledge of the matter said.

Read: India sees a worrying dip in daily Covid-19 vaccinations

That would be at least 20 crore doses less than the government's public forecast of 75 crore Covishield doses for the last five months of the year, a 27 per cent shortfall.

An internal government projection for August and September shared by a second source put the monthly number of Covishield doses at 10 crore, out of 20 crore for all the three approved shots combined.

The sources declined to be named discussing a subject on which Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has been criticised due to a shortage of vaccines. Immunisations have fallen sharply since an April peak.

The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare did not respond to queries from Reuters.

SII, which is facing raw material shortages for another vaccine that the government is banking on, declined to comment.

A spokeswoman for Covaxin-maker Bharat Biotech said that last month the company raised its annual production capacity to more than 50 crore doses, or about 4.2 crore doses a month. It has been producing about 1 crore doses a month.

Read: Govt says it aims to ramp up daily testing capacity for Covid to 45 lakh by June-end

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, the local distributor for Russia's Sputnik V, did not respond to a request for comment.

Apart from the approved vaccines, the government has also forecast August-December production of 86.6 crore doses of five yet-to-be-approved vaccines. Overall, the government has pledged to make 267 crore doses available this year.

SII has already halted exports until the end of the year to meet domestic demand, in a major blow to dozens of poor countries relying on it for supplies.

India has so far administered 18.7 crore vaccine doses, the most after China and the United States, but fully immunised only about 3 per cent of its 135 crore people.