Triple Talaq Bill may hit Rajya Sabha hurdle

The contentious Triple Talaq Bill has found space in government's list of possible businesses next week in Lok Sabha but the real test for the ruling combine will be in Rajya Sabha where the Bill might hit a hurdle with its allies like the AIADMK who may or may not change their opposition to the proposal.

The Narendra Modi government had passed the Bill twice in Lok Sabha in 2017 and 2018, but could not muster enough support in Rajya Sabha where it is still in the minority to clear the hurdle.

The Opposition has been demanding that the government should omit the provision of criminalising triple talaq. Parties like the AIADMK with 13 MPs and the JD(U) with six lawmakers in Rajya Sabha, who are partners in the BJP-led NDA, are also of the same view and had opposed these provisions.

The BJP had made its intention clear by making triple talaq the first Bill to be introduced in the new Lok Sabha.

While the passage of the Bill in Lok Sabha, where the Business Advisory Committee (BAC) has allotted three hours for its discussion, is a foregone conclusion due to the massive majority of the BJP and the NDA, the numbers in Rajya Sabha are still not in favour of the BJP, and its floor managers have their fingers crossed.

At present, the strength of Rajya Sabha is 235 with ten vacancies. Of this, the BJP can be assured of four seats, including one from Odisha if the members can take the oath before the Bill is presented.

The Opposition parties believe that they have at least 107 MPs under their belt while it counts only 92 MPS for the BJP. Another 32 MPs from the AIADMK, JD(U), the BJD, the TRS and the YSR Congress have objections to the Bill but it is not yet clear whether they would vote against the Bill or abstain from voting when it comes to Rajya Sabha.

The AIADMK and the JD(U) had opposed the Bill earlier. The latter had sought more consultations and has already made it clear that it is opposed to the Bill. It is to be seen whether they vote against the Bill.

Similarly, the BJD (five MPs) and the TRS (six MPs) too have concerns about the Bill. A senior TRS leader said they had abstained in Lok Sabha last December and they may continue to do so if there is voting this time too on the Bill.