With its spectacular victory in Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is looking for new frontiers to conquer and increase its footprint nationally. The immediate states on its list are Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. The state of Himachal Pradesh is going to the election later this year. Since Himachal Pradesh and Punjab are neighbouring states, many believe the AAP could sweep Himachal as it did Punjab. But political observers with an eye on Himachal's politics will tell you that it will not be so easy for the AAP to impact Himachal politics.
Himachal Pradesh has traditionally been a two-party state, with the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ruling its politics. There were several attempts in the past by political parties to make an entry into the hill state. But the political climb in the hill state turned out to be too steep for them.
Not to discount the AAP's success in Punjab, but the social realities of Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are quite different. In Punjab, there was a massive disconnect between its public representatives and the state's electorate. The leaders of Punjab usually moved in long cavalcades with a posse of armed security guards, which made them inaccessible to the public, resulting in a disconnect between leaders and the public. Unlike the leaders of the established political players in Punjab, the AAP leadership was more approachable, which helped it win the electorate's confidence.
But political leaders are pretty accessible in Himachal, and common people meet them without much fuss. This phenomenon cuts across party lines. It is said that some leaders are so accessible that all they do during their tenures holding public offices is attend weddings, funerals, birthdays and sundry other social events instead of raising issues of the public good.
Himachal Pradesh also performs well on most social development indicators. At nearly 83 per cent literacy rate (2011 Census), it is one of the most literate states in the country. It has also done reasonably well in improving primary healthcare. Despite its topography, Himachal has a hundred per cent electrification and a good road network.
When the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) forayed into Himachal Pradesh, in one of her speeches, party chief Mayawati appealed to the electorate to give her party a chance so that Himachal Pradesh could be turned into Uttar Pradesh. Her promise received scant attention from the voters as Himachal has one of the best law and order among North Indian states. Moreover, Himachal's leaders have always promised their people that they would turn the state into another Switzerland. The BSP could win only one seat and subsequently faded from state politics.
It has further queered the AAP's pitch that it hasn't found any known or credible faces in Himachal Pradesh. So far, the AAP has managed to collect a motley group of turncoats and political opportunists in the state, which became evident with the sudden exit of the AAP's Himachal Pradesh unit president Anup Kesri and its organisational general secretary Satish Thakur recently. Some turncoats who joined the AAP have not bothered to remove their previous party's hoardings before putting up the AAP's hoardings. In a small state, this kind of political gimmickry never goes unnoticed, nor is it appreciated.
Even though the AAP is still a fledgling entity in the state, the two principal players, the Congress and the BJP, cannot afford to ignore it. Himachal has witnessed the two parties take turns to rule it in the last three and a half decades. Neither the BJP nor Congress has managed to repeat its government in the state since 1985. Even the state's most popular leader of recent times, Congress' Virbadhra Singh, who remained chief minister for five terms, was never able to repeat a term.
The BJP has a lot at stake when it goes into the election later this year, as BJP national president Jagat Parkash Nadda hails from Himachal. Congress still has a reasonably good presence in the state and would be eyeing a victory. However, the dismal state of the party in the rest of the country could be worrying for the Congress in Himachal.
The AAP has to work hard on the ground in the state, as it did in Punjab and Delhi. It also needs to prepare a roadmap for the state that is unique to the needs of Himachal before staking a serious claim to power in the state.
(Tanveer Thakur is a journalist who has covered Himachal Pradesh and Punjab extensively.)
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