AAP’s farmer crackdown is a tightrope to nowhere

AAP seeks to secure urban and industrialist support by cracking down on farmer protests, but risks alienating its traditional rural voter base, which has been instrumental in its Punjab victory.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) came to power in Punjab in 2022 with a historic mandate, winning 92 out of 117 Assembly seats. One of the key reasons for its landslide victory was AAP’s steadfast support for the farmers' agitation against the now-scrapped three farm laws introduced by the Union government. Farmers in Punjab saw AAP as an ally, standing with them in their fight against what they perceived as corporate-backed legislation.

However, three years later, the Bhagwant Mann government has taken a U-turn, launching a crackdown on the very farmers who once helped propel AAP to power. This shift — marked by detentions, arrests, and suppression of protests — could have serious political repercussions for AAP in Punjab, especially as the 2027 Assembly elections loom closer.

With AAP’s crushing defeat in the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections, the party has now turned its full attention to Punjab. However, prioritising industrial interests over farmer concerns is a dangerous political gamble. Farmers have played a central role in Punjab’s socio-political fabric, and alienating them could cost AAP its hard-won rural stronghold.

The latest wave of farmer protests is not an isolated event but part of a series of agitations reflecting deep-seated grievances. Since 2022, Punjab has witnessed at least five significant protests, with farmers demanding a legal guarantee for minimum support price (MSP), debt relief, and improved procurement policies.

The most recent protest, the ‘Dilli Chalo’ movement, which began on February 13, 2024, led by groups like the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha (KMM) and the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM-Non-Political), underscores the continuing frustration of farmers with both state and Union governments. But rather than standing with them, as it once did, AAP has taken an adversarial stance, cracking down on protesters.

This shift became glaringly evident on March 18, when Mann stormed out of a meeting with farmer leaders after being reminded of his government’s unfulfilled promises. Within 24 hours, the Punjab Police launched a massive crackdown, detaining over 300 farmers, including prominent leaders like Jagjit Singh Dallewal and Sarwan Singh Pandher, at the Shambhu and Khanauri borders.

Supporters justify AAP’s response saying that Punjab’s economy is suffering due to prolonged highway blockades, with losses estimated at over Rs 1,500 crore per month. Industrialists, particularly in Ludhiana and other business hubs, have allegedly pressured the Mann government to act decisively against the protests. With the Ludhiana West bypoll approaching, Mann’s crackdown seems like an attempt to appease Punjab’s urban and business class.

This shift from being a ‘farmers’ party’ to a ‘pro-industry’ administration has led to growing resentment among the agrarian community. Opposition parties, particularly the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), have wasted no time in branding AAP as the ‘BJP’s B-team’.

The political consequences of AAP’s shift could be significant. Farmers remain a dominant electoral force in Punjab, and their disenchantment with AAP could prove costly. The Congress, which has maintained a strong presence in Punjab, is well-positioned to capitalise on this sentiment. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress won seven out of 13 parliamentary seats in Punjab, while AAP secured only three.

AAP’s vulnerability is further compounded by the fact that its electoral success in Punjab has been primarily rooted in rural areas. In the 2022 Assembly elections, AAP dominated rural constituencies of the Malwa region, which is the agrarian heart of Punjab, while the Congress performed better in urban centres like Jalandhar. The trend persisted in 2024, with AAP again securing its Lok Sabha seats from rural strongholds such as Sangrur, Anandpur Sahib, and Hoshiarpur. If AAP continues to alienate its rural voter base, the Congress will likely fill the vacuum, reclaiming lost ground in Punjab.

Another key concern for AAP is the growing perception that Punjab’s governance is now being dictated by Delhi. Arvind Kejriwal has personally stepped into Punjab’s affairs, campaigning for the Jalandhar West bypoll and reshuffling AAP’s state leadership. The appointment of Manish Sisodia as Punjab in-charge and Satyendar Jain as co-in-charge signals that the party’s high command will be controlling Punjab’s political narrative. However, there is an inherent risk in this strategy. AAP’s governance model — centred on its much-touted ‘Delhi model’ — is fundamentally urban-centric. Trying to replicate it in Punjab, a state with a deeply agrarian identity, could backfire.

The party now finds itself walking a precarious tightrope. On one hand, it seeks to secure urban and industrialist support by cracking down on farmer protests. On the other, it risks alienating its traditional rural voter base, which has been instrumental in its Punjab victory. This balancing act is fraught with risks — if AAP fails to fully win over the urban electorate while simultaneously losing rural support, it could find itself isolated and electorally weakened.

More importantly, AAP’s current stance contradicts the very ethos that propelled it to power. It positioned itself as a grassroots movement challenging entrenched political elites and championing the cause of the common citizen. Its current actions, however, paint it as part of the establishment it once opposed. By employing the same tactic it once condemned — suppressing protests, prioritising corporate interests over farmers, and reneging on promises — it is opening itself to charges of hypocrisy.

With key farmer unions like the SKM vowing electoral retaliation, AAP is heading into treacherous waters. If it continues down this path, it will not only jeopardise its 2027 re-election prospects but could also permanently damage its credibility in the state. The lesson is clear: AAP must realign its policies with the aspirations of Punjab’s agrarian heartland — or face the consequences at the ballot box.

Sayantan Ghosh is a research scholar and teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata. X: @sayantan_gh.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.