AI, Musk and Trump add up to a turbulent 2025 for tech

By Dave Lee

You may have heard that the Oxford dictionary’s “word of the year” this year was “brain rot.”

I found that interesting for two reasons. The first is that it is clearly two words. The second is that unlike prior words of the year — like 2013’s “selfie” or last year’s “rizz” — “brain rot” is neither new nor changed from its original intended meaning. Its first use was recorded in 1854 and said to be “indicative of a general decline in mental and intellectual effort” — which, well, yeah.

Since the selection for Oxford’s yearly word is done by public poll, this leads me to my first prediction in this column of observations for tech in 2025: The brain rot economy will show signs of weakness as people grow more wary of what is being served up to them by algorithms as they scroll endlessly. In the past year, the flood of AI slop content has made looking at Facebook even more pointless — and eyeballs will go elsewhere.

Along the same lines, we can expect more anti-social media and anti-smartphone legislation from governments and local authorities around the world following the drastic action taken by Australia to ban users younger than 16 from social media and more and more bans on smartphones in US schools. Momentum is growing, and I expect more sweeping directives will follow — along with more spirited debate over whether such bans are justified or effective. See also: well-intentioned but poorly executed age verification efforts.

The biggest jolt to the social media landscape could come from a US ban on TikTok. The January 19 deadline for its divestiture is fast-approaching, but before then, on January 10, the Supreme Court will hear arguments from each side — TikTok and the Justice Department — on the whether the ban is constitutional. Many legal observers have deemed it unlikely the court will overturn the lower court’s ruling, which sided with the government on its somewhat vague concerns of national security. But in recent days the pendulum has shown signs of a swing. Trump, after weeks of will-he, won’t-he, has sought to pause the law until he is in office. A delay would allow “breathing space for the court to consider the questions on a more measured schedule,” he argued in an amicus brief. Many on the left and right agree with him.

If the steady stream of tech CEOs visiting Mar-a-Lago is any indication, we can expect Silicon Valley to be more willing to do Trump’s bidding in 2025 than it was in 2017, when we saw widespread condemnation of Trump and a pledge to not aid him in carrying out his policies. It will take several big tech partners to put in motion Trump’s mass deportation goals should he actually attempt to go through with them. Tech companies, more frugal these days and with employees on a much tighter leash, will jump at the chance — history books be damned. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza will continue to provide moral cover for Silicon Valley firms to enter military contracts they have previously shirked out of fear of upsetting their rank-and-file workers and customer base.

At the center of tech policymaking will be Elon Musk. The world’s richest man will be looking for a strong return on his investment in Trump. What exactly that looks like remains to be seen, though we’ve already seem him wield the force of his social network, X, to bend Congress to his will. But his ownership of X, and his power over what is posted and amplified there, will likely make him a lightning rod for the warring factions in right wing politics.

Last week’s bitter row over H-1B visas shows how suspicions over Musk’s aims lie just beneath the surface, and the billionaire’s unwillingness to back down from a fight could prove damaging to his companies. In 2025, Musk needs to show real progress on his robotaxi vision, which requires more legislative support than it has now. Tesla’s share gains since Trump was elected suggest Wall Street thinks the plan is right on track, but I think Tesla investors will be sorely disappointed when Musk’s robotaxi plan reveals itself to be infeasible (some would argue that’s apparent already).

Investors will also be keeping a close watch on chipmaker Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang, the so-called godfather of artificial intelligence, will be a man under siege as rivals such as Amazon.com Inc. and Broadcom Inc. seek to provide bonafide alternatives to Nvidia’s AI chips and geopolitical tensions between the US and China put Nvidia on the front line. Beijing is looking for effective means of retaliation over US trade restrictions, and Nvidia is vulnerable.

Wall Street demands for meaningful return on investment from AI will get louder. Capital expenditures from data center construction and semiconductor hoarding will skyrocket, but the capabilities and revenue of AI won’t match the pace of investment. In a political environment friendlier to large mergers and acquisitions, we can expect significant consolidation in the AI industry.

The also-ran startups will go under. At the same time, politicians will increasingly find themselves caught between big tech interests and the fury of their constituents as AI companies seek to rapidly put data centers in towns that don’t want them.

AI pushback will also come from news organizations that feel AI companies are stealing their work and putting their futures at risk. In 2025, newsrooms globally will need to contend with AI as both friend and foe, recognizing its potential for arming journalists with incredibly powerful new reporting tools while wondering if multimillion-dollar deals with OpenAI and others are giving away the farm.

Legislators and judges will get into the fine print of modernizing copyright law. One phrase we’ll be hearing a lot is “fair use” — which will hopefully receive a precedent-setting revised definition sooner rather than later.

Consolidation, or at least cooperation, might be in the air for streaming companies as consumers stare down serious subscription fatigue. We’ve recently seen price increases for YouTube TV, Disney+, Max and Paramount+, in addition to password crackdowns and the introduction of ads. The streaming market is too crowded and major streaming providers will look to bundle up their offerings in a way that will look suspiciously like traditional cable TV.

Elsewhere in entertainment, the 10-years-in-the-making Grand Theft Auto 6 will walk a culture war tightrope as it seeks to become the most popular entertainment product of all time. The game rose to prominence as an ultra-violent, no-holds-barred, over-the-top portrayal of the scummy criminal underworld. In the decade since its previous installment, sensibilities have changed, though something tells me developer Rockstar Games will err on the side of offensiveness. All publicity is good publicity, and it sure makes for fiery debate. See you in the new year.