Last week former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and now the uncrowned head of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), Edappadi K Palaniswami visited Delhi to have discussions with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) high command. The AIADMK is part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
After meetings with Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP chief J P Nadda, the buzz began to get louder that the BJP had asked for 15 of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu from its NDA ally for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Whether this number includes the share of some of the smaller NDA allies is not known, but the number 15 has raised eyebrows in political circles.
The BJP has been trying to grow its base in Tamil Nadu and it has seen some success under K Annamalai, the IPS officer-turned-politician and state party chief. With the AIADMK busy dealing with its internal squabbles until recently, the field was clear for Annamalai to mount an assault on the ruling M K Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government. From the second half of 2021 and through most of 2022 it did appear that the BJP with just four MLA’s in the assembly (AIADMK has 66) was the principal opposition party.
EPS, as Palaniswami is called by his supporters, has become more active once the court cases went in his favour and the threat he faced from former party colleague and former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam receded. On August 20, the AIADMK organised a massive conference at Madurai. The turnout was impressive and made political observers believe that the AIADMK was getting its political mojo back.
The alliance though faces stiff headwinds. For one, Annamalai has made no secret of his desire to detach the BJP from the AIADMK. At an internal meeting he was quoted as having said he would resign if the alliance was to continue. His sharp criticism of AIADMK leaders, including former Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa who is revered by the AIADMK cadre, has hardly helped endear him to the party cadre.
Last week he fired another salvo against former Chief Minister (late) C N Annadurai. Anna as he is referred to by many, was one of the founders of the DMK, and features in the AIADMK’s name and party flag. Though Anna died in 1969 and thus the current generation would not have a direct connect with him, he is still revered as one of the founding fathers of the Dravidian movement. Annamalai’s statement drew swift opposition from the AIADMK.
Within the AIADMK there is a fair amount of antipathy to Annamalai and, by extension, to the BJP. Despite EPS committing himself to the alliance multiple times, the AIADMK cadre is upset that the BJP high command is not reining Annamalai in. Over the last few weeks, there was relative silence, and it was thought that Shah and Nadda had asked Annamalai to refrain from making such statements, but the latest controversy over his statement on Anna belies that hope. In fact, many in the AIADMK believe that the BJP top brass may be allowing Annamalai to take on the AIADMK. This has raised doubts if a vote transfer between the two parties will happen at all.
EPS is a seasoned politician. He knows all too well that breaking away from the NDA now could attract the wrath of the central investigative agencies against him and other AIADMK leaders who face corruption cases. However, the constant sniping from his alliance partner undermines EPS’ leadership as Tamil Nadu’s principal opposition leader.
The BJP’s demand for 15 seats is seen as way too high for a party that lost all the five seats it was allotted in 2019, and could win only four out of the 20 seats it got in the 2021 assembly elections. The AIADMK wanting out of the NDA closer to the elections cannot be ruled out.
As of now the other NDA partners in Tamil Nadu are in a wait-and-watch mode. The largest other ally, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), is part of the NDA at the Centre but not in the state. This has led to speculation that the party, as it usually does, is keeping its options open. There is also the issue of what the BJP plans to offer to TTV Dhinakaran and Panneerselvam. The AIADMK is strongly opposed to their entry into the alliance, but the BJP may want their community votes in southern Tamil Nadu, and may suggest an indirect alliance with them.
As of now uncertainty clouds the NDA in Tamil Nadu. With some opinion polls showing a comfortable win for the DMK-Congress alliance in the Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu, the BJP needs to get its act together. For Annamalai, who promised to deliver big for the BJP in the state, time is ticking away faster than he would have wished for.
Sumanth Raman is a Chennai-based television anchor and political analyst.
(The views expressed here are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)
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