Cong worries about Jaganmohan Reddy playing the 'martyr'

Despite being the rising star on the political firmament of Andhra Pradesh, the future is not going to be a bed of roses for Y S Jaganmohan Reddy. While his political fortunes are certainly on the rise, as reflected by his YSR Congress Party’s thumping victory in the recent byelection in Kovur, the ongoing CBI probe into his alleged illegal assets’ case has cast a shadow over his future. The spectre of possible imprisonment looms large over his otherwise ambitious political career.

The alleged amassing of wealth during his father late Y S Rajasekhar Reddy’s tenure as chief minister has come back to haunt Jagan. A chargesheet filed by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) has accused Jagan and 12 others of criminal conspiracy, cheating, falsification of documents, forgery, abuse of official position and other relevant charges in the Indian Penal Code. The father-son duo allegedly allotted land to two pharmaceutical companies as a quid pro quo for investment in companies controlled by Jagan.

The CBI had registered a case against Jagan and 73 others in August, 2011, after the Andhra Pradesh high court ordered a CBI probe into the aspects of financial misdeeds involving government largesse, corporate dealings including investments made into his firms. It has named Aurobindo group along with Aurobindo Pharma managing director K Nityananda Reddy, Hetero Group along with its director M Srinivas Reddy among the other accused in addition to Jagathi Publications and Janani Infrastructure, promoted by Jagan, which had received vast investments from these companies as accused in the charge sheet.

Equally in piquant position is the ruling Congress. While Jaganmohan was already under the CBI scanner in the ill-gotten wealth case as his net worth grew from a paltry Rs 9.18 lakh to Rs 77 crore during the years his father was in power, the mention of YSR in the chargesheet is of huge political significance. The ruling Congress party can no longer blame YSR for rampant corruption and at the same time claim his  political legacy in the ensuing byelections in 18 Assembly segments and one Lok Sabha seat.
Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee president Botsa Satyanarayana, reacting to the chargesheet tried to strike a balance. He argued that though the ministers bore collective responsibility they were not responsible for the deals struck by YSR outside the purview of the cabinet and YSR never consulted his cabinet colleagues before sealing the deals.

Possible counter-attack

The reason for official paralysis is the report that Jagan might launch a counter-attack that the wealth that his father helped him to accumulate was used in the successful campaign in the 2009 elections. But there is a catch. Jagan would then end up indicting himself, as well as his father in the wealth amassing case.

“The main reason why Jagan is continuing with the Odarpu Yatra consoling those who died heart-broken after YSR’s death in a chopper crash is to avoid arrest by the CBI as it would create a law and order problem,” said Gali Muddukrishnama Naidu, TDP deputy floor leader in the AP Assembly. Jagan is currently touring West Godavari district and drew huge crowds in actor turned politician Chiranjeevi’s native place Mogalturu.
The million dollar question before the Congress government is whether to seek arrest of Jagan, who is accused number one, in the disproportionate assets case and make him a martyr, as the voters might perceive it as corruption by a former Congress government and not Jagan as he was not part of the government when the irregularities occurred.
Political observers in the state say that the CBI might not arrest Jagan at this juncture. “If they arrest Jagan, the government will be forced to take action also against the ministers who received notices from the Supreme Court for issuing 26 controversial government orders, under the YSR government” said YSRCP spokesperson Ambati Rambabu, warning that if the CBI arrested Jagan “it would lead to a bloodbath.”

Chief minister N Kirankumar Reddy’s critics in the Congress are also not sure of the outcome if the Election Commission announces schedule for the byelections for the 17 seats vacated by pro-Jagan congress MLAs in coastal and one in Telangana region. Former health minister D L Ravindra Reddy predicted that Congress would not be able to win a single seat in the byelections, “as surveys reveal that people are in favour of giving an opportunity to YSR Congress party leader. There is also a strong anti-incumbency factor running against us as the party is in power for ten years,” he said.

As the stalemate continues, the future of Jaganmohan Reddy has become a hot topic for discussion. The Congress-led UPA government at the Centre, which is ‘calibrating’ the CBI’s investigation against Jagan, would like to ‘nail’ him closer to the 2014 elections. More than the Assembly polls, the Congress is worried about its performance in the Lok Sabha elections as it currently has 30-odd MPs and it would like to make every effort possible to retain as many seats as possible. Making a Jagan a martyr in the eyes of the people would certainly not be in its interests.