In Delhi, a poll on perceptions

BJP banks on corruption charges against AAP; the latter sees possibility in persecution

With the announcement of a single-phase election in Delhi on February 5, the stage is set for the country’s first key electoral fight of the year. Campaigning had started before the official declaration of the date and over the next three weeks, Delhi will see an intense run-up to the polling day.

Elections in the national capital come with a political heft not indicated in the size of the electorate. The BJP, India’s most impactful political party, has been marginalised in the state Assembly elections in the past. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the country’s youngest party, has dominated state elections in the recent past.

While the main contest is between the two parties, the Congress which ruled the state for three consecutive terms before 2013, is also in the fray, though it does not have a single member in the outgoing Assembly.

The elections are crucial for AAP which has been in power for 10 years. A defeat will seriously damage the party, and even a drop in the number of seats will trigger questions. The party has to battle anti-incumbency of the last two terms, though it claims that there is no negative sentiment against it. The AAP has a popular leader in Arvind Kejriwal and claims that it will win on the strength of its governance record.

The BJP started its campaign for the elections many months ago, following the arrest of Kejriwal and senior AAP ministers and leaders on corruption charges. While it hopes that the charges will stick and hurt the AAP, the latter sees the harassment and persecution of its leaders as electorally beneficial.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is himself leading the BJP’s campaign. All parties have made promises of sops to the voters, especially women – these promises have emerged as critical to electoral narratives of welfarism, with each party trying to better the others with the sops on offer.

The Congress and the AAP are said to be constituents of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc but there is no love lost between them in Delhi. The Congress had denied accommodation to the AAP in the Haryana election and the AAP is returning the favour in Delhi.

Both have traded charges and the AAP has sought expulsion of the Congress from the Opposition alliance. The Congress wants its presence felt in the capital, but it will end up splitting the anti-BJP votes. The election in Delhi is likely to expose the fissures and weaknesses in the Opposition ranks, though the AAP will still be enjoying the support of the other I.N.D.I.A. partners.