Mercury is soaring, heed the warnings

There is another weather calamity waiting for the country if the India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s prediction of a searing summer comes true. The forecast is that most parts of the country are likely to see above normal maximum temperatures during the March-May hot weather season. Some parts of peninsular and northwest India may not see the heat surge, but the summer is unlikely to be kind there, either. Above normal temperatures usually mean an increase of 4-5 degrees above the usual, and that can severely impact life at home, at the school and the workplace, and the commute between them. Last month, IMD had made a preliminary assessment that the weather would be hotter this year. The assessment has been strengthened by the possibility that the El Nino phenomenon, which warms up the Pacific Ocean, will be strong this year. But El Nino would only accentuate existing conditions. There are many reasons for the rising heat, including changes in land-use patterns, the loss of green cover, and the building of infrastructure with materials that trap heat. All these are playing out in the backdrop of climate change.

Last year’s March and this year’s February were the warmest months on record since 1901, and these may have been signs of what lies ahead. The rainfall was also below normal levels. The heat wave conditions may worsen with high humidity, and that may make it more difficult to withstand the heat. Agriculture may be particularly affected. Last year, the heat wave had led to a significant fall in wheat output. According to a World Bank study, extreme heat can cost India 2.5-4.5 per cent of its GDP. It has also said that India’s wet-bulb readings, which are based on temperature and humidity, could go well beyond the threshold of survivability. That is a dire situation.

The forecast will hopefully prompt governments to take measures that will help to ease the situation and reduce the impact of the heat wave on human lives and various sectors of the economy like agriculture and tourism. Guidelines on dealing with heat waves already exist. Some states have made their own plans also. But most of them are under-prepared and have not taken into consideration all factors that influence the weather conditions. Many plans are difficult to implement. At least 11 people died of heat stroke at a rally attended by Union Home Minister Amit Shah near Mumbai on Sunday. According to reports, there were no warnings and precautions. Political parties need to be vigilant about heat wave conditions during the Karnataka Assembly election campaign. Governments should take weather warnings seriously. There is no time left to act because the hot summer is already upon us.