Rahul in Rae Bareli: Advance or retreat?

His decision not to contest from Amethi begs a question

Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest the Lok Sabha elections from Rae Bareli can be interpreted in many ways. One is that he has decided to stick to the family seat, after his mother decided not to contest the elections and chose a Rajya Sabha seat from Rajasthan. Another is that by contesting from a seat in UP, he and the Congress party want to be visible in the state where the BJP holds overwhelming electoral sway. Even if the party is contesting 17 seats from the state, none of them will get as much attention as the two seats, traditionally contested and won by a member of the Gandhi family, except in 2019 when union minister Smriti Irani defeated Rahul Gandhi. Rahul Gandhi had seen it coming and so contested from another seat, Wayanad in Kerala, from where he won easily. He has contested again from Wayanad and is expected to win. 

Rae Bareli is the Gandhi family’s and the Congress party’s last link with UP, a state it had once dominated. The constituency has returned Congress candidates in 17 out the 20 elections held since Independence. The BJP can be expected to do everything to defeat Rahul Gandhi. It will be a political and psychological victory for the party if it removes the Gandhi word from UP’s electoral dictionary. It will be a prestige fight for the Congress too. A victory there, whether supported by other victories in UP or not, may keep the Congress afloat in the state. Priyanka Gandhi has worked and campaigned a lot in UP and it was even expected that she would contest from  Rae Bareli or Amethi. The party, family or she — it does not make a difference who — decided that she would not contest, and the Amethi seat has gone to a family loyalist. 

There are also other ways of looking at Rahul Gandhi’s decision. It may be seen as running away from Amethi. The BJP has gone to town with it. Should Rahul Gandhi be commended for being a realist or criticised for avoiding a contest? The judgement will probably depend on a person’s politics. There are other questions too. Why were the decisions on both Rae Bareli and Amethi kept till the last day? The suspense would not have added value or given a tactical advantage to the party. If Rahul Gandhi had plans to contest from Rae Bareli, he should have announced it before polling day in Wayanad. He was being unfair to the voters of Wayanad by not disclosing it. This is because he will have to vacate one constituency if he wins from both.