Which way will Israel swing?

With Benjamin Netanyahu failing to meet the 42-day deadline to cobble up a majority to form a coalition government — a single seat stood in the way of his return to power — Israel is plunged into political uncertainty. The Knesset voted to dissolve itself and Israel will go to the polls again on September 17. The stumbling block was disagreement between Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman, chairman of the hardline nationalist Yisrael Beytanu over whether ultra-Orthodox Jews should continue to enjoy exemption from Israeli military service. Lieberman had made his support to Netanyahu contingent on passage of a bill to make military service mandatory for ultra-Orthodox Jews as it is for other Israelis. Dependent on the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party’s 16 seats and unable to secure Yisrael Beytanu’s bloc of five seats, Netanyahu’s hopes of returning for a record 11th consecutive year as Israel’s prime minister were dashed. More was at stake for Netanyahu than just becoming Israel’s longest serving prime minister. He was planning to put in place legislation giving him immunity from prosecution while in office. That has now suffered a setback.

It is unclear whether another election will provide more clarity. There is a possibility therefore that Israel’s notoriously chaotic domestic politics will remain turbulent in the foreseeable future. Netanyahu’s performance in the September election is likely to be impacted adversely by his pre-indictment hearing on corruption charges, which will be held around a fortnight before voting day. The already high hostility between Yisrael Beytanu and the ultra-Orthodox Jews can be expected to soar during the upcoming election campaign, making a post-poll compromise all the more difficult. Israel’s centre-left parties could benefit from the current political chaos. In the April election, the Blue and White, a centrist coalition, secured 35 seats (like Likud) but was unable to form the new government as it lacked allies. It could attract the votes of Israelis looking for change.

But there is hope on the horizon. With Israel heading back to elections, US President Donald Trump’s ‘peace plan’ for the region, which he so grandly touted as the “deal of the century” has been put on ice. Should Netanyahu be defeated, the ‘peace plan’ could end up a non-starter if Israel’s new government decides to dump it. Even if Netanyahu returns to the helm, his government will take charge around October by when Trump will be gearing up for his own 2020 campaign. The likelihood of Trump’s ‘peace plan’ becoming a still-born effort is good news for Palestinians. Another election in Israel is therefore not such a bad thing. It provides Israeli voters an opportunity to effect change, especially if voters exercise their franchise in favour of inclusivity, peace and democracy.