In Germany, the centre moves right

In asking Syrian refugees to leave, Chancellor Friederich Merz has crossed into AfD territory

Germany’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CBU) that helms the ruling coalition has begun to look more right than centre in its attempt to beat the far-right at its own game by coming up with more radical solutions to the migration problem.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz stunned even his own party colleagues and coalition partners by declaring that it was time for Syrian refugees to return to their homeland, which is limping back to normalcy with a new West-backed administration in place.

Germany alone had accommodated over a million Syrian refugees, or over 50% of those who arrived in Europe, during the massive humanitarian crisis that unfolded in Syria a decade ago. 

Then Chancellor Angela Merkel had, in 2015, opened the doors for the refugees who arrived in Germany despite strident criticism from certain sections of the political spectrum.

She was lauded for her kindness in accommodating men, women and children who fled the strife-torn Middle Eastern country. But that one decision is now believed to have fuelled the rise of the far-right anti-migrant Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), which finished only second to the CDU in the elections held early this year.

Merz’s announcement came after the latest ratings showed AfD marginally ahead of his party and could improve on its popularity if left unchecked. While many see the chancellor’s worrying statement as a means to check the growth of AfD by bringing up the migration question, it has rattled the Syrian community and the larger migrant population in the country.

Leaders in his ruling coalition, especially from the centre-left Social Democratic Party, have voiced concern at Merz stepping on AfD territory in terms of issues like migration.

An area of particular concern for Germany is healthcare, as Syrians make up the largest group of foreign doctors in the country. Some 7,000 Syrians are now part of the approximately 428,000 doctors in Germany.

While most of the highly qualified and skilled workers and professionals who fled Syria have already become naturalised German citizens, Merz’s statement has sent shockwaves even among them.

Syrian ophthalmologist Ammar Jabur told state broadcaster DW that he felt “unwelcome” in Germany after Merz’s announcement fuelled anti-migrant social media comments.

Mediendienst Integration, a service platform for journalists, cited the Central Registrar of Foreigners to put the number of Syrian nationals in Germany at 948,000 at the end of September. This is a decrease of 3% compared to the end of 2024, either because many of them have acquired German citizenship or have returned to Syria.

The transitional government in Damascus headed by interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa had given a glimmer of hope to Syrian refugees around the world. But the civil unrest that led to the killing of hundreds of Alawite civilians, the once-privileged minority section from which former president Bashar al-Assad hails, had doused much of that hope for an immediate return to total peace.

Several European countries that host Syrian refugees had suspended processing refugees from Syria immediately after the transitional government took charge in Damascus. The idea of the voluntary return of Syrians to their country had gained traction with the collapse of the Assad regime.

Germany offers financial assistance to refugees opting to return to their home countries. The money is expected to act as a seed fund for returnees to reboot their lives in their respective countries. 

But it is not clear how many takers there would be among Syrian refugees since much of their country is not habitable, let alone anything close to the kind of First World infrastructure and amenities they enjoyed all these years in Europe.

Supporting refugees and non-productive migrants has been a burden on the German government that is already faced with declining industrial output and an unemployment rate of 4.1% in September.

The German automotive sector has in particular been under tremendous strain due to dwindling demand for combustion engines in a global market rapidly looking at EV and other green options. As the Financial Times put it, “There is no European industrial crisis, only a German one.”

But Goldman Sachs painted a more encouraging picture since the infusion of €500 billion for rebuilding infrastructure and defence is forecast to boost German GDP growth to 1.4% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, from the current 0.8%, and thus end the recession of the past couple of years.

Notwithstanding the forecast, the administration seems to be bent on reducing Syrian migrants, especially in view of the local elections next year.

(The writer is a senior
journalist based in Berlin)