Ishiba-Trump meet a diplomatic win for Japan

The US visits of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are noteworthy because neither country is one that the mainstream American public has been known to care much about, and because from a larger diplomatic perspective, Europe seems to have been pointedly ignored.

By mid-February, United States’ new president Donald Trump had invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, King Abdullah II of Jordan, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House. The meeting with the Israeli leader was aimed at resolving the Gaza issue, which is a particularly emotive issue in the US currently. However, the visits of Ishiba and Modi are noteworthy because neither country is one that the mainstream American public has been known to care much about, and because from a larger diplomatic perspective, Europe seems to have been pointedly ignored.

The latter point has been driven home by the fact that the Americans and Russians have already met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the conflict in Ukraine leaving the Ukrainians themselves and the Europeans scrambling. Both Japan and India perhaps continue to be seen as useful in the US strategy of ensuring American supremacy by containing China’s global expansion. After all, it was the first Trump administration that provided fresh impetus to the QUAD initiative.

Reconnecting

Nevertheless, getting relations off to a good start with Trump was a major issue for the Japanese government, led by Ishiba who had just taken office in October but lost his party’s majority in snap elections that followed. Wishing to emulate the action of his former rival and late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2016, Ishiba expressed his desire to visit Trump soon after the US elections — a request the Trump team refused saying that he could not do so before the inauguration due to domestic regulations.

Japan has serious concerns on both the security and economic fronts. During the Biden administration, which emphasised co-operation with allies, Tokyo revised three national security-related documents — its National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Buildup Program — and launched a plan to double defence spending that had remained unchanged for three decades. Aiming to maintain the international order in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), the two countries strengthened joint military operations and promoted multilayered co-operation with like-minded countries, utilising frameworks such as QUAD. With Trump’s return, Japan fears that the new administration might overturn such agreements despite China’s expanding influence in the region, and demand that Japan increase its contribution for the stationing of US troops in Japan.

The biggest economic challenge, meanwhile, was Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel, a prominent American manufacturer that had fallen into financial difficulties in the face of competition from China. In December, Nippon Steel’s bid was blocked by a Biden presidential order on national security grounds. Both companies eventually filed a lawsuit in response and the case was being closely watched by many experts for an indication of how the US would interact economically with its global partners in the future. Japan also had concerns that Trump might impose tariffs on Japan's major exports, such as automobiles and machinery.

Doing his homework

However, during his visit to Washington, Ishiba was able to resolve most of these concerns. In their meeting on February 7, the two leaders broke the deadlock by reframing Nippon Steel’s ‘acquisition’ as an ‘investment’, meeting Trump’s expectation that US Steel’s identity as an American company remain unchanged.

On the security front, the joint statement affirmed the “determination to pursue a new golden age for U.S.-Japan relations that upholds a free and open Indo-Pacific”. They also expressed opposition to China’s attempts to “change the status quo by force or coercion” in the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait. The US underscored its commitment to the defence of Japan including the Senkaku Islands, using all kinds of capabilities including nuclear. The two countries also confirmed their continued endeavour to upgrade relations with like-minded countries.

Particularly noteworthy is the Ishiba government’s great efforts preparing for the meeting with Trump. The Japanese bureaucracy analysed Trump’s personal character and mindset based on his negotiations with Abe and formulated thorough discussion strategies in each field. The Japanese prime minister received more than 30 hours of lectures from experts before the trip. He also sought advice of those who had met Trump, including his predecessors as prime minister, Aso Taro and Fumio Kishida. During his visit, Ishiba anticipated Trump’s demands by announcing that Japan would increase its investment in the US by 20% to $1 trillion, and that it would participate in the development of natural gas resources in Alaska worth $44 billion to increase its imports.

The Japanese media praised Ishiba for his success in accomplishing the first meeting with the unpredictable US president ‘without trouble’. China officially protested against the Japan-US joint statement, but its reaction was relatively restrained. For Japan, the continued involvement of the US in its defence was vital for its national security situated as it is next to China, which has a habit of applying strong pressure on weaker neighbours.

Uncertainty persists

However, the difficulties of future Japan-US relations seem to lie in what was not discussed at the summit. Regional hotspots such as Gaza and Ukraine were not raised at this meeting and there is growing concern in Japan about Trump’s US-centric approach to foreign affairs. The joint statement made no mention of adhering to a ‘rule-based international order’ that the two countries had previously committed to.

Trump also did not promise to not apply high tariffs to Japan. Indeed, on February 10, three days after the meeting with Ishiba, he signed a presidential order imposing a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium, which is expected to apply to Japan as well.

Even for a co-operative ally like Japan, co-ordinating relations with the Trump administration will remain extremely challenging.

(Chisako T Masuo is professor, Faculty of Social and Cultural Studies, Kyushu University, Japan.)

(Jabin T Jacob is associate professor, Department of International Relations and Governance Studies, Shiv Nadar University, Delhi NCR.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the authors' own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.