Maha Kumbh Stampede | Crowd disasters are predictable, preventable, avoidable

The recent stampede at Mahakumbh, in Prayagraj, leading to the death of at least 30 devotees in an assembly of about 100 million, has jolted our minds. Based on media reports, it can be inferred that people sleeping on the sideways could have trampled upon during the stampede on January 29.

Much bigger casualties have occurred in even smaller gatherings worldwide. On May 18, 1896, 1,389 people died in coronation of Tsar Nicholas II in Moscow. On December 30, 1903, 600 people died in the rush to escape a theatre fire in Chicago, United States. More than 800 pilgrims died in crowd crush at the Allahabad (now Prayagraj) Kumbh mela, 1954. About 330 spectators died in crowd crush in football match in Lima, Peru in 1964. In 1990, 1,426 people died in a tunnel tragedy in Mecca, in 1994, 270 died during the Hajj, in 1998, 118 died in Mecca, in 2004, 251 died in Mina, and in 2015 2,400 died in a crowd crush in Mina, in Saudi Arabia. These indicate that such tragedies are becoming frequent and bigger across the world.

Irrespective of religion, geography, culture, and level of development of society, stampedes have always occurred in human history. The human tendency that leads to a stampede is an old animal survival instinct that remains in us.

The word stampede, derived from Mexican-Spanish word ‘estampida’, refers to a sudden, uncontrolled, frenzied rush of animals or humans in a direction, typically triggered by fear, panic, or loud noise. Often terms like ‘progressive crowd collapse’, ‘crowd crush’ or ‘crowd trampling’ are used as its synonyms.

When people are too squeezed to breathe and die of compressive asphyxiation, it is called crowd crush. When people collapse on each other in a static or moving crowd. it is called progressive crowd collapse. Trampling is crushing of victims under feet of rushing crowd during a stampede. Death in stampede trampling occurs due to crushing of vital organs like chest, brain, and abdomen.

All crowd disasters are predictable, preventable, and avoidable. The pre-event planning, rehearsals, and execution, along with capacity for dynamic decision-making, plays a very import role in the management of crowd disasters.

During pre-event planning, a realistic assessment of probable crowd size, its periodic oscillation, ethnic distribution, and capacity evaluation of the venue are essential. While doing the risk assessment based on these data, the planner must identify all potential hazards and chalk out contingency plans accordingly.

Rehearsals of the whole plan, under the supervision of external experts and observers, involving all personnel must be done repeatedly to achieve synchronisation of idea and uniform attitudinal change for execution of contingency plan. These simulation exercises help in testing the plan and training of staff. However, it is seen that during these rehearsals top decision-makers are not present at the venue. At many events world over, it is seen that the use of feedback mechanism and debriefing is avoided, and rehearsals are not repeated.

CCTVs, drones, ground sensors, satellite pictures, aerial recce, and GIS can be used to monitor crowd flow and density. Ground-based photo sensors, load sensors, and proximity sensors can be used to detect pressure and density in critical areas.

AI and machine learning can be used to analyse crowd behaviours and predict possible flash points. GPS installed in mobiles can be used to analyse assembly and movement pattern of crowd by tracking each person. Aadhar-linked with GPS can be used for crowd registration, movement co-ordination, and monitoring.

Communication with the crowd is always a challenge. Mobile apps, social media pages, SMS, FM radio, and loudspeakers must be used to provide real-time updates. Communicating clearly and calmly is essential during an emergency, which requires training, practice, experience, and updated knowledge of ground situations. Wrong or lack of communication has caused many crowd disasters.

Multidirectional channelisation of the crowd is essential. Channelisation, not based on actual holding capacity of a venue or sudden merger of different channels, increases the probability of crowd disasters. Sometimes, the police deliberately lengthen the travel time to the venue. It is a bad strategy. It creates panic and stress among the visitors as they lose their valuable time in unplanned circumvented routes. The resultant anxiety compels them to rush for the main event like worship or a holy bath. They use the limited time left to do everything planned. A person in a hurry is dangerous for a crowd. When there are many such persons in a hurry, the crowd itself becomes dangerous.

With increasing anti-government movements and communal conflicts, the chances of a sabotage are increasing. Pre-event registration, token-issuing, biometric-based entry, visitor scheduling for equitable load distribution and visitor identification and authentication need to be implemented in crowd management strategies now.

Finally, the success or failure of a disaster management plan depends on the quality of manpower involved in policing and administration. Training, constant knowledge updating, rehearsals, rotation of manpower, and continuous psychological counselling will ensure the prediction, prevention, mitigation of crowd disasters be it crowd crush, crowd collapse, or stampede.

(Deepak Pandey is a national-level expert on disaster management. His doctoral thesis was a comparative study on disaster management in India, Japan, South Africa, and the United States. He has co-ordinated many search and rescue operations across India)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.