Maharashtra crisis: BJP hopes to capture Sena space

Much depends on Zirwal's role, who belongs to the NCP, but a long-drawn legal battle seems inevitable

While a series of raids by central agencies and the deviation from the hardcore Hindutva are the purported reasons behind the rebellion in the Shiv Sena camp, the coup is basically a part of the BJP's larger gameplan to disintegrate the well-entrenched Shiv Sena in Maharashtra.

The group led by Shiv Sena MLA Eknath Shinde has rebelled, complaining that Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray deviated from the hardcore Hindutva propagated by the Shiv Sena supremo Balasaheb Thackeray and joined hands with ideologically different Congress and NCP. The group has also resented that the Congress and the NCP, which were struggling for existence, have flourished at the cost of the Shiv Sena.

The battle has now taken a legal turn, with Shiv Sena submitting a letter to Maharashtra Assembly Deputy Speaker Narhari Zirwal to suspend 12 MLAs who violated the party whip and did not attend the meeting of the Shiv Sena legislature party (SLP). In turn, Shinde has submitted a letter to Zirwal claiming the support of 37 MLAs. He has also communicated that he has "appointed" MLA Bharat Ghogawale (Mahad, Raigad) as the whip of the SLP and challenged the appointment of MLA Ajay Choudhari as the leader of the SLP by Uddhav Thackeray. Shinde has also claimed that his group is the "real Shiv Sena".

Also Read: Rebel Shiv Sena MLAs enjoy high-class lifestyle in Guwahati: A look at estimates

When the legislature is not in session, the disputes about the symbol and party name are considered outside issues and dealt with by the Election Commission of India under the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order 1968. Besides, disputes related to the claim over the parties are dealt with according to the Registration of Political Parties Order, 2009 (re-revised 2022).

The group camping in a luxurious hotel in Guwahati in BJP-ruled Assam proves beyond doubt that the rebellion has the BJP's backing and the move is pre-planned. Two MLAs - Nitin Deshmukh (Akola) and Kailas Patil (Aurangabad), who managed to escape from the rebel camp from Surat, have alleged a conspiracy on the part of the BJP. Deshmukh also alleged the attempts by Gujarat authorities to abduct and harm him. Under the circumstances, the case of abduction can be lodged against the rebel group.

The role of central agencies

Another reason behind the rebellion is a series of raids by the central agencies, including the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Income Tax Department, on the premises of the leaders of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in the last two years. The leaders include Pratap Sarnaik, Yashwant Jadhav, Sanjay Raut, and Anil Parab of the Shiv Sena. Similar raids were conducted on NCP leaders, including Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar, Nawab Malik, Anil Deshmukh, Eknath Khadse, and Prasad Tanpure. Facing ED action Nawab Malik and Anil Deshmukh are already behind bars. This has discredited the Shiv Sena, the rebel group says.

Also Read: BJP wants to finish off Shiv Sena as it does not want to share Hindu vote bank: Uddhav Thackeray

Sena workers resent NCP dominance

Besides, there have been clashes between the Shiv Sena and NCP workers, and Sena MLAs have been complaining about the lack of funds for development work in their constituencies ever since the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government came to power on November 28, 2019. By and large, the Shiv Sena workers are against the upper hand of the NCP and Congress candidates in their well-nurtured constituencies. Several Shiv Sena workers have suggested that the party should renew its ties with the BJP. In a letter to Uddhav Thackeray, Shiv Sena MP Bhavna Gawali (from Buldhana) has endorsed this view.

The curious timing of the rebellion

The coup by the Shiv Sena MLAs has taken place exactly after the completion of two and half years by the MVA government, which lends credence to the theory that the rebellion is pre-planned. Uddhav Thackeray has completed a term of two and half years, the demand that the Shiv Sena had raised before it severed its ties with the BJP and joined hands with the Congress and NCP to form a three-party government.

Eknath Shinde's CM aspirations

When the MVA government was taking shape, Eknath Shinde, a corporator of the Thane Municipal Corporation and four-time MLA from Thane's Pachpakhadi, was the frontrunner for the CM's post. However, at the insistence of NCP chief Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray became the CM, and Shinde's ambition to become the CM could not be fulfilled. Shinde has also been resenting interference in his ministerial portfolio of the urban development department by Aditya Thackeray, Uddhav Thackeray's son and a minister.

Also Read: Maharashtra political crisis to be decided by ‘legal battles’?

Speaker's role

Now the breakaway group will have to obtain recognition from the Speaker. The MVA Government will certainly demand a floor test. The real test for the breakaway group lies in getting the Deputy Speaker to give recognition to the group. The Shinde group cannot be recognised as the 'Shiv Sena Legislature Party'. Initially, it will remain as a separate group.

The rebel group MLAs cannot be disqualified since they are well above the two-thirds majority (compared to the Shiv Sena's original strength of 55). Even after assumed defections, the Shiv Sena will have 18 MLAs in the Assembly. However, the Deputy Speaker's decision will be crucial.

BJP majority

With the support of the breakaway group, the BJP's strength is slated to go up to 165 (BJP 106, Independents 13, Shinde Group 37 + 9 Independents), well beyond the required majority of 145 in the 288-member Maharashtra Legislative Assembly.

The monsoon session of the Maharashtra state legislature is scheduled to begin on July 18, and everything depends upon Zirwal's role, who belongs to the NCP. However, the long-drawn legal battle seems inevitable.

(Raju Vernekar is a Mumbai-based senior journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.