MEA blithely walks into the Caucasian chalk circle

India’s endorsement of a US-backed peace deal in Transcaucasia risks aligning with NATO’s anti-Russia strategy

The alacrity with which External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stepped onto the Transcaucasian chessboard to commend the intentions of Armenia to conclude a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, at the urging of United States President Donald Trump, triggers amusement and bewilderment. 

Amusement — because Jaishankar unwittingly endorsed ‘Sabke Boss’ as the peace-making president worthy of a Nobel. Bewilderment — because the US’ backstabbing of Russia in Transcaucasia will also bring NATO and Pakistan on the same page while India teams up with Israel.

Trump’s mediation in Transcaucasia is a patently geopolitical act on a day his special envoy Steve Witkoff was proposing to Vladimir Putin a summit meeting to discuss peace in Ukraine. The great game in Transcaucasia began with the US-backed colour revolution and regime change in Armenia in 2018 which brought the West’s proxy Nikol Pashinyan to power as prime minister. Washington astutely seized advantage of the souring of relations lately between Moscow and Baku, and promoted the latter’s gravitation toward Turkiye and Israel with the support of the EU and NATO. The great game is patently stacked against Russia, Iran, and China.

It is anchored on the ‘heartland theory’ of Halford Mackinder, which has been the lodestar of US foreign policy strategy towards Russia through the past century, aimed at encircling Russia with an arc of hostile states to challenge its primacy in the Eurasian heartland — of which the Ukraine conflict is today’s most glaring manifestation. As per Mackinder, the control of Eastern Europe and the ‘Heartland’ region with its vast resources and strategic depth — spanning Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and Russia — is crucial for the West’s global dominance.

The backstabbing of Russia in Transcaucasia is curious since Trump is essentially putting his imprimatur on a MI6-Mossad-CIA project in a region adjacent to Russia’s Muslim republics at a time when Putin is pinning hopes that Trump would appreciate Russia’s legitimate concerns in its neighbourhood. Alas, the Trump-Putin Alaska summit on August 15 seems preordained to fail.

Such an anti-Russian shift in the regional balance poses a security threat to Iran as well. The Israeli standoff attack on Iran from the Caspian was only possible because of its use of Azerbaijan’s airspace. Iran has since held a military exercise with Russia specifically to strengthen its Caspian defence line. Azerbaijan is also a hub in the North-South International Transport Corridor, which is a joint Russian-Iranian-Indian project. All in all, New Delhi should take an overt stance against NATO’s stealthy march eastward across the Black Sea.

The Kremlin is circling wagons. First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs and a senior Kremlin politician, Konstantin Zatulin, said, “If we reject Ukraine’s NATO membership, then we should not permit NATO to establish a foothold in our own neighbourhood. This is precisely what is unfolding in South Caucasus, with Turkey, a NATO member, actively pursuing such ambitions.”

Zatulin remarked that Armenia and Azerbaijan are demonstrating a willingness to disregard previous agreements with Russia, and their actions are validated by the US. He characterised this as part of a broader “large-scale conflict between Russia and the West.” Zatulin called for Moscow to achieve its objectives in Ukraine as swiftly as possible in the face of the Western intent to prolong the conflict to undermine Russia's interests in other neighbouring regions like Transcaucasia. 

The US deep state refuses to acknowledge Black Sea and Transcaucasia as Russia’s sphere of influence, while Trump rejects China’s presence in the Panama Canal and renames the Gulf of Mexico as Gulf of America, and deploys NATO on Russia’s borders. Washington has pledged to invest in a ‘Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity’ — a connectivity project near Iran and Russia’s borders that strengthens NATO presence in the Black Sea region, Caspian, and Central Asia, including Afghanistan. Tehran will oppose the project no matter what it takes, given the threat from the Mossad's base in Azerbaijan.

Turkiye is playing a duplicitous game to undercut Russia’s influence in Transcaucasia, as it did last December in Syria. Turks wear different hats depending on circumstances — from Neo-Ottomanism and Islamism to Pan-Turkism and NATO membership. Unsurprisingly, BRICS is keeping Turkiye at arm’s length.

NATO’s footprints in Transcaucasia will cause geopolitical turbulence in the Black Sea region. For Russia, China, and Iran, the security of the swathe of territory comprising the Black Sea, Caspian, and Central Asia is an existential issue. They kept the US out of the region, but the floodgates are opening, given Russia’s distraction in the all-consuming Ukraine war. 

New Delhi should not be sending confusing signals. The Russian foreign ministry took note of the US-Armenian-Azeri declaration of August 8 to underscore that “it would be prudent to avoid repeating the counterproductive outcomes of Western conflict mediation in the Middle East” and that the Armenian-Azeri reconciliation process “must be situated within the regional context, grounded in a balance of interests and unconditional respect for the priorities of both parties and neighbouring nations.” The Russian statement flagged the contradictions, least of all that “Armenia’s border with Iran remains under the protection of Russian border troops, deployed pursuant to the interstate treaty of September 30, 1992.”

Conceivably, Pashinyan also feels uneasy about putting all his eggs in Trump’s basket whose attention span is limited, while Azeri leader Aliyev is a resilient revanchist adversary. In the final analysis, Russia is a balancer when a long and winding road lies ahead for the August 8 declaration’s pious hopes still remain to be codified as a formal peace treaty. Yerevan, in a state of nervousness to test the waters, called up Moscow twice on Monday.

Against the above complex backdrop, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval’s extensive consultations in Moscow last week were timely. The US Deep State is reopening the ‘Afghan File’ and India has congruent interests with Russia. Make no mistake, there is a possible common thread connecting the camaraderie between the Pentagon and Pakistani army chief; the latter’s second visit to the US in the past two months; Trump’s dalliance with him; General Asim Munir’s growing belligerence on Kashmir; Trump’s attempt to clip India’s wings; and Kremlin’s recognition of Taliban and pledge to help stabilise Afghan security. 

There are things that only Pakistan can do at the operational level to facilitate a NATO presence in Inner Asia. Munir may well offer logistics support for US covert operations and extract reciprocal underprop from the Americans for his enterprises directed against India. Indeed, Pakistan also happens to be a close ally of Azerbaijan, the springboard for NATO to access Central Asia.

(M K Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat.)