JOIN US'Modi good, Shah bad': Didi's move shows survival instinct
More than two decades ago, Mamata Banerjee launched her party, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), and started her journey holding the hand of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). At the time, for her, '(Atal Bihari) Vajpayee' was good and '(Lal Krishna) Advani' bad. The main factor behind such a narrative was Advani's association with the militant Ram Janmabhoomi movement.
Since 2013, the Bengal CM's narrative has changed. It became 'Advani good, Modi bad'. The obvious reason was Modi's taint in allegedly not stopping the communal riots in Gujarat in 2002 (when Banerjee was a minister in the BJP-led government at the Centre). But she had to distance herself from Modi to keep her new-found Muslim vote bank intact.
Her strategy worked, and she returned to power in Bengal for the third time, thanks in considerable measure to her Muslim support base. Since the BJP's rise in Bengal in 2019, Banerjee has become dependent on the Muslim support base for her political survival, and it is well known that most Muslims have been staunchly anti-Modi since 2002.
So, it is surprising that the Bengal CM has given a new spin by somewhat declaring 'Modi good and Shah bad'. Her claim is significant because she is on record stating words to this effect on the floor of the state legislative assembly. Participating in a discussion on a resolution condemning 'over activeness of central agencies', she declared she did not believe that the PM was behind 'the politically motivated over activeness of the central agencies in the state. The CM instead drew the PM's attention to stall it. Then she explained that the CBI was now in the hands of Union Home Minister Amit Shah, identifying him as the villain of the piece.
The new narrative, indicative of bonhomie between Modi and Banerjee, has been a shocker to the staunch anti-BJP opposition parties setting the stage for the anti-Modi campaign targeting 2024, but also to the Muslim community. The question is, why did the Bengal CM decide to embark on such a treacherous journey?
It, in fact, betrays a desperate attempt by the Bengal CM to stop CBI-ED's operations in Bengal that has come as a threat to several of the party's ministers, MLAs and MPs. With two heavyweights of TMC in jail and some officers and alleged go-betweens, the question that rocks the TMC now is who's next?
What is worse is that in this time of uncertainty, when the CBI and ED investigating about a dozen cases are crisscrossing Bengal, Abhishek Banerjee's slogan of a 'new TMC' has given birth to conjecture that a sweeping generational change in the party is in the offing, the extent of which is not yet known. So, there is a fear factor that 'I may be axed next'.
But how does one manage the situation? The Bengal CM knows nothing comes for free. With the economy in bad shape, unemployment and inflation playing havoc with people's lives, the BJP could likely fall short of a majority in the Lok Sabha in 2024. Then Modi will need some new supporters. Banerjee's new 'Modi good, Shah bad' narrative aims to exploit this opportunity.
But all this will create confusion and mistrust in the opposition camp and weaken the effort to rally a joint force against the Modi juggernaut. With a high probability of Maharashtra, Bengal and Punjab-Delhi-Haryana returning BJP and its allies in much fewer numbers to the Lok Sabha in 2024, the opposition has reasons to be high-spirited. However, the TMC's double game will mar the spirit. It may also spill over to the Muslim community, damaging the TMC's prospects in future.
For the BJP, it is a win-win situation. It can carry on the CBI-ED operations without touching Abhishek Banerjee till the Lok Sabha election, thereby damaging the TMC politically. And yet, it may extract support from the TMC for 'good' Modi, if the latter needs it. Then, of course, the CBI-ED will be reined in, as was the case for the last few years, and Abhishek Banerjee will emerge unscathed. But why should BJP care if it gets the required help?
No honest man indeed has anything to fear the ED or CBI. But politicians in general and regional parties, in particular, are vulnerable. It has given the parties in power in Delhi the scope to tame the regional parties by using central agencies since the 1990s. Given J Jayalalithaa and Laloo Prasad's examples, the TMC top brass has reasons to be unnerved. So, at the moment, the CM of Bengal and her nephew Abhishek have to concentrate on their survival rather than opposition unity. They are doing that, and 'Modi good, Shah bad' is a political ploy.
(Diptendra Raychaudhuri is a journalist and author based in Kolkata)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.