2014 was hope in Modi, 2019 is people’s trust in him

It is for the second successive time in a decade that the opposition has all but been wiped out in the national elections. Unfortunately for BJP-baiters, the 2019 elections proved no better than 2014, save for some small gains for parties like BSP.

That the Congress, whose claim of being a pan-India party will now come under serious questioning, will fail to get the post of the leader of the opposition in Lok Sabha again shows the extent of the BJP victory as well as the decimation of the Grand Old Party. An opposition party needs to have a strength of at least 54 seats to be recognised for the leader of the opposition post.

Another feature of the current elections was the dismal performance of the parties opposing the BJP – they have taken a serious beating in this election, like in the last. The UPA lot, SP, BSP or the Left Front - all suffered huge losses and will find it difficult to keep their cadre in good humour for another five years.

What are the causes for the outclassing of the opposition? The rout of those gunning for the BJP -– or rather for Narendra Modi –- indicates that the anti-Modi rhetoric that they adopted throughout the election did not work. This, as much as that Modi brought in nationalism, Pulwama, Balakot or even Rajiv Gandhi’s alleged family outing in Lakshadweep in the 1980s, instead of talking about the `achievements’ of his government.

In fact, the anti-Modi rhetoric may have turned counter-productive for the Opposition, considering the losses suffered by them.
The voters perhaps did not like the strident stand taken by the likes of Congress president Rahul Gandhi or other leaders. The more they spoke ill of Modi, the more votes the main BJP vote-catcher may have polled.

The strong undercurrent in favour of Modi also indicates that selection of candidates on the basis of caste may not have not worked. Else, the SP-BSP-RLD `gathbandhan’ in UP would have fared better. The three parties came together mainly because of caste calculations, which they thought would benefit them all.

As far as the Opposition parties are concerned, this election showed that parties merely coming together without the meeting of minds and hearts of their leaders and cadres does not work. This was amply evident in Karnataka even before the elections were announced. The Congress and the JD(S) did not come together in most of the 28 seats and the result is starkly clear. In hindsight, Congress may have fared better had it contested alone!

It was the case with the formation in Bihar, too — the ‘gathbandan’ lost badly to the BJP-JD(U) alliance. The alliance in Maharashtra — the state with the second largest number of LS seats — turned in a most dismal result as UPA could lead in just five out of 48. Where perhaps striking an alliance would have worked — Delhi — Congress was not willing to walk the extra mile to tie up with AAP. These results show that mere coalitions are not enough. Something more that would attract the voter, like Modi and BJP brought in to their electioneering, was needed.

Cong’s decimation

Like in 2014, this election again proved the Congress is no match for the BJP when it comes to straight contests. The two parties faced off in about 176 constituencies, a majority of them in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Needless to say, Congress wilted under the BJP campaign and lost most of them.

The astounding BJP win is a big lesson for the Congress on spreading its wings. On this score, Congress has a huge worry as it has been wiped out in several states. The seats it won came mostly from only three states – Kerala, Punjab and Tamil Nadu, the last one courtesy DMK.

While Congress went on losing the states/regions where it once held sway, BJP was making giant strides – be it Karnataka, West Bengal, Odisha or the North-East. Besides, BJP consolidated its position in most other states it had won handsomely in 2014. Bengal, Odisha and the N-E were the new states/
region that the BJP eyed since 2014 as it felt a good showing in these areas was required to offset any shortcoming in other states.

The argument that it will stand to lose one to five seats in states where it won 100% of seats or did remarkably well in 2014 — Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Haryana, Bihar etc — did not hold water in the end.

That the Congress was routed in Maharashtra — its bastion for decades — shows where the party is headed. It could win (lead) only one seat in this western state. The hype over the entry of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra into the UP campaign had no impact on the voters in a state where the party lost its roots over three decades ago. The result was also a mirror to the way the Congress conducted its campaign. The party did not have a message or a messenger, unlike BJP where Modi was all-pervasive. Although its manifesto was well-drafted, the party failed in taking its contents to the people.

As this reporter met voters in northern Karnataka or eastern UP, hardly anyone had heard of its anti-poverty scheme, Nyay. Nor did its Rafale corruption charge sell. As against this, Modi’s thorough message of nationalism and security –emotional as they were - touched people all across the country.

Congress did not offer any resistance to the systematic undermining of key institutions. It failed to effectively point out the failures of the Modi government – the dismal performance of the economy, lack of reforms, high rate of unemployment, divisive rule, etc.

As a result of all these, Modi looks invincible as he is all set to head the new NDA government – this is the first time that a non-Congress leader has got elected for a second term as prime minister. If 2014 presented a hope in Modi, 2019 represents people’s trust in him. And a complete rejection of the Opposition.