Population | Will China get older before it gets richer?

To call on women to give up their economic and financial freedoms to focus on childbearing is underscoring the idea that the party wants women to socially and culturally move back while the country should economically move ahead.

China’s population has witnessed a decline for the second consecutive year. As per the data released on January 17, the Chinese population stood at 1.409 billion, which is around 2 million lower than 2022. The data also indicates that around 9.02 million babies were born in 2023, while 9.56 million were born in 2022. This news has resulted in a major fall in Chinese stocks and is a cause of concern for Beijing. It has intensified the belief that China is all set to get older before it gets richer.

This decline was expected, and the primary factor behind this is known to the world: China’s one-child policy which was adopted by the Communist Party of China (CPC) in the 1980s. To counter and delay this decline the policy was reversed by Xi Jinping in 2015, and China has moved today to a two- and three-child policy. However, even after announcing economic perks and benefits, there has been no major push in the birth rate. This shows that the challenge when it comes to population is not simple and linear, and the top-down policies are not enough to reverse the decline.

The gravity of this decline and the urgency to push the population growth becomes obvious when one looks back at the statement made by Xi during the All China Women’s Federation (ACWF) held in October. Xi asserted that there is a need to “actively cultivate a new culture of marriage and childbearing, and strengthen guidance on young people's view on marriage, childbirth and family”. The CPC is now linking the role of women to national development and rejuvenation. However, this role is defined by the party, and changes with its needs and demands.

The CPC’s relationship with women has been ‘unique’. China today has come a long way from the days of liberation when Mao Zedong proclaimed that ‘women hold up half the sky’ and denounced the ideas of foot binding. With the reform and opening under Deng Xiaoping, Chinese society underwent major changes with more women joining the workforce. This coupled with the one-child policy further made it necessary for women to work. However, the party today is again calling on women as it needs them to fulfil their traditional role as child bearers.

The demographic dividend has been a key driver for the Chinese economy. The lure of cheap labour is what drove the initial phase of China’s development. However, today the CPC needs a vibrant, young population to move the economic growth from manufacturing to innovation. The population is also what keeps the domestic demands and consumption growing. However, the rising cost of living, healthcare, education, and retirement is making it difficult for people to have more children. Childbearing as well as upbringing is becoming highly expensive and, thus, less attractive.

For the CPC, the demographic dividend is essential. Today, China has lost its position as the most-populous nation. The Chinese birth rates are consistently declining and every policy push by the government has failed to see any reversal. If the decline continues the challenge for the party will further intensify.

The declining population has multiple dimensions and it needs a more wholesome approach. The CPC has just tried to achieve its goal by undertaking policy changes which have always come as too little too late. The party needs to understand that population growth is directly linked to its economic policies which have resulted in major social changes. With women joining the workforce, and education and marriages becoming increasingly expensive, it is normal to witness a population decline. To call on women to give up their economic and financial freedoms to focus on childbearing underscores the idea that the party wants women to socially and culturally move back while the country should economically move ahead.

(Gunjan Singh is Assistant Professor, OP Jindal Global University.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.