JOIN USOPINION | Saffron rise in the East
The Bengalis do not like the western disturbance that strikes in the winter from the North-West, ushering in storm and rain. But this time the disturbance has struck in early summer, and the Bengalis, at least some of them, are enjoying it.
This disturbance is not just meteorological. It is also political. And resoundingly so. It is about the sudden surge of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), so long known in Bengal as a ‘North Indian Party’, to such an extent that has eclipsed the once-mighty Left and dwarfed the Congress. In two-thirds of the Lok Sabha seats in Bengal, this poll will virtually be a direct contest between the BJP and Mamata Banerjee's party. Only in the rest one-third, the Left or the Congress may force it to be triangular fights.
When a storm strikes, there is chaos and strange things happen. And indeed that is the case. In Bengal, Mamata Banerjee is raising the bogey of collaboration between the Congress and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh! The Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) is accusing the BJP of an underhand deal with the Trinamool Congress (TMC), particularly in the Diamond Harbour constituency from where Mamata's nephew Abhishek Banerjee, the sitting MP, is contesting. The BJP has accused the TMC of using Bangladeshis in their campaign. They have named two actors: Ferdous Ahmed and Gazi Abdul Noor. The former has already been recalled by Bangladesh and expelled by the Indian government.
The story of BJP's rise, however, is not restricted to Bengal. The same also holds for the neighbouring state of Odisha. In 2014, BJP won just one seat in Odisha (out of 21), and 2 in Bengal (out of 42). Five years later, in the last round of pre-poll surveys, psephologists have given the saffron camp 10-14 seats in Odisha and 8-13 in Bengal.
Going by the average of these surveys, it comes to 22-23 additional seats from these two states. Adding to the tally the probable gains from the North-East, where even the Christian dominated states are voting for BJP’s local allies, it seems this year the BJP may have some crucial addition from the East to make up for its possible losses in Uttar Pradesh.
How BJP mopped up the pockets of resistance in the East is quite an interesting story. Even after sweeping Bihar, Jharkhand and then Assam, scoring a double-digit figure in Odisha or Bengal was a distant dream for Narendra Modi’s party a year ago.
But myriad factors came into play that helped the BJP in the Eastern and North-Eastern states. Some of those are the expected ones: Assertion of the political Hindu, war cry against Bangladeshi infiltrators and appeasement, the promise of giving citizenship to the Hindu refugees, hope of economic progress and a wave of nationalistic fervour after Balakot.
But in both the states, the crucial factor is a function of simple arithmetic: The polarization of anti-incumbency votes against the ruling parties of the state. The degree of such polarization will ultimately decide BJP’s fate in both the states.
The Opposition was divided in both Odisha and Bengal in the past. While in Bengal three forces shared the pie (the Left, the BJP and the Congress), in Odisha it was divided between two (Congress and BJP). The BJP was on the rise for a few years in Odisha, and this time they have emerged as the sole champion of ‘change’ with the slogan Naveen sarkaro, badliba darkaro (Naveen government needs to be changed).
In Bengal, after the panchayat elections held last year, BJP has succeeded in emerging as the only challenger who has the power to combat the might of the TMC. So, in both the states, the voters peeved with the ruling party are now veering towards the BJP.
However, the final outcome is unpredictable. In Bengal, BJP’s vote is still concentrated in about 30 to 32 constituencies, while TMC has significant presence everywhere. So, the BJP has the potential of coming somewhat close to TMC’s tally, even if it lags behind in terms of vote share by 10 per cent.
In Odisha, the electoral arithmetic is more complex as election to the state Assembly is being held simultaneously with the Lok Sabha polls. After a 19-year-long stint Naveen Babu may have to post a video to provide evidence of his fitness, but he is still the favourite for the CM’s post for a large segment of population. The same holds true for Mamata, but as this election is about the Centre, where a regional party can best have a marginal role, she is also in some trouble.
Amit Shah, the BJP president, has claimed his party would win 23 seats in Bengal. While that appears hyperbolic, Left sources are ready to concede 12-14 seats to the Saffron brigade. With each passing phase of the election, they feel, the BJP’s sail will catch more wind. They argue that such a situation has arisen because of Mamata Banerjee’s continuous tirades against Narendra Modi. Instead of consolidating the anti-BJP votes in favour of TMC, it has fired people’s imagination about the BJP as a masculine force that could defeat the TMC.
However, both Naveen Patnaik and Mamata Banerjee are master politicians. Both used BJP during their rise and then dumped it. But the ghost has returned to haunt them, etching a new political landscape in its wake. Whatever may be the final outcome, no doubt a very interesting scenario is unfurling over the East.
(Diptendra Raychaudhuri is a Kolkata-based journalist and author of books including, 'A Naxal Story'. He is a deputy editor at the Bengali daily, Aajkal)