Afghanistan at a crucial juncture

What will Taliban do once all US troops are gone?

A ‘violence reduction deal’ reached between the United States and the Taliban could change the face of endless war in Afghanistan. By no stretch of imagination is this a peace agreement. All that the Taliban has agreed is to reduce violence over a seven-day period as the US begins pulling out its troops. Thus, the deal—if the two sides stick to its terms—could mark the beginning of the end of America’s longest war. A pull-out of troops from Afghanistan will boost President Donald Trump’s re-election prospects. He had promised to bring home American troops and can claim now that he has fulfilled that pledge. Should the deal hold for a week, it is likely that the two sides will do another deal to enable a gradual pull-out of American troops in Afghanistan in the coming months. The ‘violence reduction deal’ has potential. If it holds for even a week, it will raise the prospects of a longer ceasefire agreement and, eventually, of a settlement between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

The question is, how serious are the main conflict actors about ending violence? The possibility that the Taliban is using the ‘violence reduction deal’ and other deals with the US that follow to simply get American troops to leave Afghanistan cannot be ruled out. It is likely that the Taliban and its patrons abroad will bide their time till the exit of American troops to resume fighting for power in Kabul. Even if the Taliban has realised the futility of fighting endlessly and is keen on a negotiated settlement, it is unclear whether all its leaders and commanders, as well as the rank and file, are on board. For instance, is the Haqqani Network amenable to a compromise agreement? Will hawks hold their fire during the week of violence reduction and thereafter? It is important that direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban are initiated before the American troops are pulled out. Troop withdrawal should not be hurried according to the US election calendar. Rather, it should be linked to progress made in talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. The US must not compromise on this matter.

There are powerful interests that have benefited enormously from the weapons and narcotics trade that has flourished amidst the decades-old civil war. They can be expected to sabotage attempts at reducing violence. Meanwhile, the Afghan government faces yet another crisis. Abdullah Abdullah has challenged Ashraf Ghani’s victory in the presidential election and announced the setting up of a parallel government. If that were to happen, Afghanistan could well be staring at a return to a familiar pattern of fractiousness and internal conflict that feeds terrorism.