Has the US voter grown tired of Trumpism?

Democrats have created history with their impressive performance in the mid-term elections to the US Senate and House of Representatives. Historically, the party of the President has almost always suffered heavy losses in mid-term elections.

In mid-term elections between 1934 and 2018, the President’s party lost an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. However, in the just-concluded elections, the Democrats have put up a commendable performance. Not only have they retained control of the Senate but also, even if they lose the House – final results for elections to the House are awaited – they will do so only by a narrow margin.

What makes the Democrats’ performance all the more impressive is the fact that it has come despite President Joe Biden’s plummeting approval ratings and the economic woes – inflation is at 8% -- that Americans are struggling with. A ‘Republican wave’ was predicted. But the Grand Old Party couldn’t create even a ripple.

Read | US midterm elections still up in air and Republicans look for whom to blame

What went wrong for the Republicans and right for the Democrats? The US economy has been hit by high inflation, but unemployment remains low. People haven’t been laid off from work. In the circumstances, other issues, especially the right to abortion, brought voters, mainly women, youth and the poor – traditional supporters of the Democrat Party – out in large numbers. They delivered a string of unexpected Democrat wins.

Interestingly, the mid-term elections have not come across as a vote on the incumbent’s performance. Rather, it has been a referendum on former President Donald Trump and his polarising politics. With the passage of time, even many Republican supporters seem to have decided to move away from Trump and Trumpism. Republican candidates who were endorsed by Trump or who endorsed his views either lost the election or won only by narrow margins.

Another major setback to Trump is the stunning victory of Florida’s Republican Governor Ros de Santis, a likely challenger to Trump’s re-election bid in 2024. While de Santis’ support among Republicans is evident, Trump is unlikely to throw in the towel that easily.

While Democrats can draw satisfaction with their performance, the road ahead for the Biden administration will be tough. After two years of Democrat control of the Senate and House, Washington could see a power shift in the House, however small that might be. Should the House go to the Republicans, Biden will find it difficult to score legislative wins there. Legislation relating to priority issues for Democrats such as on abortion rights and education are unlikely to see progress. Government shutdowns over budget spending, which hasn’t happened over the last couple of years, can be expected, too.