Trinamool's Meghalaya challenge

While its leader, former CM Mukul Sangma, is popular, TMC has a weak organisation in the state

Trinamool Congress's earlier attempts to expand beyond Bengal didn't yield the desired results in Manipur, Assam, Tripura and Goa despite the party committing enough resources in assembly polls. But the party is upbeat about its prospects in Meghalaya. The National People's Party (NPP)-led coalition government is facing anti-incumbency because of its
failure to change the quality of lives of the people. Former chief minister Mukul Sangma heads the Meghalaya TMC and has a significant following across the state. Forming a government may be a pipe dream, as many observers feel. Still, there is a possibility the party might get a considerable vote share.

With 'change' as its theme for a state that has over 70 per cent tribal population, seasoned campaigner Mamata Banerjee is harping on New Delhi's neglect of Meghalaya and other Northeastern states. Aware of the state's matriarchal culture, she has promised a financial inclusion scheme under which a direct transfer of Rs 1,000 per month will be made to women in every household in Meghalaya. While the Trinamool is banking on the popularity of its social welfare schemes in West Bengal to be replicated in Meghalaya, the ethos of the two states has differing strands.

The NPP-BJP alliance has created a narrative that the Trinamool is an external entity with no linkages with Meghalaya. Knowing that this emotion may go against the party in a state where regional aspiration has strong roots, the Trinamool has reiterated that Meghalaya will be governed from Shillong and not from New Delhi or Guwahati. Mukul Sangma, aware of the campaign, has taken a principled position on the issue and opined that such a narrative was against the ethos of inclusive India and antithetical to the cosmopolitan spirit of Shillong. Now, it remains to be seen whether Trinamool's promise of change, the cult of Mamata and Sangma's acceptance as a leader can help the party shed the outsider tag. She has also projected Dr Mukul Sangma as the party's political icon, fully aware of Chief Minister Conrad Sangma's father and former Lok Sabha speaker P.A Sangma's charisma in the state.

Kickstarting its campaign on an aggressive note, the Trinamool may be playing by the rulebook. Trinamool national spokesperson Saket Gokhale has filed a case in the Meghalaya High Court against the NPP's non-filing of the Meghalaya Elections, 2018 Expenditure Report. An interim application has also been filed in the Meghalaya High Court, praying that
the NPP be derecognised and its symbol frozen until the case is decided by the court. The TMC has pointed out that under Election Commission rules, poll expenditure statements have to be filed within 75 days of the conclusion of Assembly polls, which the NPP has reportedly not done in the last five years. Mamata Banerjee's Shillong welfare flutters have other add-ons. An assurance to find a resolution to the border dispute with Assam, frequent visits to Meghalaya by the Trinamool leadership and a promise to sail with the electorate's sub-regional, ethnic and linguistic aspirations.

Except on one occasion, Meghalaya has always given fractured mandates at the hustings. Apart from the mainstream parties, there are tribal peer groups that work from outside the electoral battlefield. For the TMC to make a dent in Meghalaya may be an arduous task. Its identification as a regional party puts its grassroots organisation at a disadvantage. The other constraint, analysts feel, is the nature of politics in Meghalaya, where having a block of MLAs doesn't necessarily mean the political party would be able to form a government. One shouldn't forget that the NPP, which has the support and blessings of the BJP, is also ready for post-poll understandings and tie-ups.

With the Congress completely decimated in Meghalaya, the ruling NPP-led coalition has practically no opposition in the state. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress is hoping to gobble up the fractious opposition space in the state. The TMC knows that mission Meghalaya is not going to be a cakewalk, but it's poll managers feel the party has an advantage because its face is Mukul Sangma, who has a sizeable clout in the Garo Hills. Another major drawback of the TMC is its lack of a strong footing in the Khasi and Jaintia Hills, two predominant areas in the state.

However, the TMC could win a few seats in Meghalaya akin to the AAP in the recent Gujarat hustings, but there is a flip side to it. The TMC's participation and a downhill Congress would actually be a fillip for the BJP-NPP alliance in Meghalaya. A splitting of votes may invariably help the BJP-NPP coalition win big and thus have a larger share of the electoral pie on the lines of the BJP's sweeping victory in Gujarat.

(The writer is a commentator on politics and society.)