Trump and Putin’s 'peace agreement' has left Europe guessing

With a ‘ceasefire’ off the table, this phase in the Ukraine war carried major implications for European security, the global order, and Russia’s role in it.

Several new developments following the meeting in Alaska between United States President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin suggest that several substantive issues were discussed and possibly agreed upon. Nevertheless, the initial assessment by most analysts was that the meeting did not produce a real ‘breakthrough’, as no ceasefire arrangement was concluded. At the same time, it was also widely interpreted as a moment signifying Putin’s return to the forefront of global politics.

Trump rated the meeting “10 out of 10”, while Putin claimed the summit had brought both countries “closer to the necessary solutions”. Yet, some in India even described it as a “failed summit”.

Europeans have been clearly upset. First, instead of isolating Russia and pursuing its ‘strategic defeat’, Trump extended a red-carpet welcome to Putin. Second, they felt sidelined as key decisions on European security and borders were being discussed without their direct involvement. Third, they had urged Trump to push for a ceasefire, and then, with European allies involved, ensure Ukraine’s participation in subsequent meetings to work toward a final settlement. Putin, instead of mentioning any immediate ceasefire, talked about ‘root causes’ of the crisis.

After the summit and subsequent phone calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, various European leaders, and the NATO Secretary General, Trump has now announced that the best way to end the war is to pursue a ‘Peace Agreement’ rather than a ‘Ceasefire Agreement’. This marks a clear reversal of the earlier US position. Trump seems to have realised that, with its current strength on the battlefield, Russia is not inclined toward a ceasefire but is instead seeking a final settlement.

At the press conference, when both Trump and Putin referred to an agreement without giving details, this is perhaps what they had in mind. Trump has now announced it after consulting his European allies. With the ceasefire planned derailed, Zelenskyy is scheduled to meet the US administration on August 18, , and now major Europeans leaders will also be joining him in Washington.

Another issue closely linked to the ‘peace agreement’ is the question of security guarantees for Ukraine. This was first mentioned by Putin at the press conference, and it also appeared in the European Commission’s statement. A joint press release issued by the presidents of the European Commission and European Council, along with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb, welcomed the US declaration that it is “prepared to give security guarantees”. Now US special envoy Steve Witkoff has clarified that the US and Europe could "effectively offer Article 5-like language to cover a security guarantee" to Ukraine. The Russian envoy to international organisations in Vienna asserts that Russia agrees to it, but it will also expect security guarantees from the West.

There is now a growing realisation in Europe that the meeting has given new momentum and direction to the Ukraine war. Tusk declared that “the game for Ukraine’s future, Poland’s security, and all of Europe has entered a decisive phase.” He stressed that “Putin has once again proven to be a cunning and ruthless player,”. So, for him, maintaining the unity of the entire West is very important.

For Europeans, the only major relief is Trump’s agreement to provide security guarantees — something he had earlier urged a ‘coalition of the willing’, a group of nations, including the UK, France, and Germany, to take on themselves.

Although major players in Europe are preparing to adjust to the new realities, some continue to repeat the same rhetoric they have used over the past three years. Referring to Russia’s emphasis on “root causes”, former Estonian Prime Minister and current EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas maintained that “the real root cause of the war is Russia’s imperialist foreign policy, not an imaginary imbalance in the European security architecture.”

Leaders of the 'Nordic Baltic Eight' group of countries (NB8) issued a statement saying “No decisions on Ukraine without Ukraine, and no decisions on Europe without Europe”. They believe Putin cannot be trusted and that lasting peace will require both a ceasefire and security guarantees.

With the ‘ceasefire’ issue off the table and some assurances on ‘security guarantees’ — possibly from both the US and Russia — the real challenge now is to negotiate the status of about 20% Ukrainian territory under Russian control in the upcoming meetings. Russia now claims that Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson are part of its territory. Some reports suggest it wants Ukrainian forces to withdraw from certain cities still under their control in Donetsk, in exchange for freezing the front lines in Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. This may well represent Russia’s opening bargaining position.

The EU and Ukraine will now have to decide on the questions of Ukraine’s territorial integrity; and its sovereignty regarding NATO membership. As for the EU membership, if it is eventually offered, Russia appears relatively unconcerned.

The Ukraine war is entering a decisive phase, with major implications for European security, the global order, and Russia’s role within it. It will also have significant consequences for India’s relations with Russia, Europe, and the US.

Gulshan Sachdeva is chief coordinator, DAKSHIN-Global South Centre of Excellence at the RIS New Delhi, and Professor of European Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.