Trump nudges West to ease off on Russia

Donald Trump, like his predecessor Joe Biden, is ‘weaponising’ sanctions but in a reverse direction to create conditions encouraging Moscow to be co-operative with Washington.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’s summit meeting last week will significantly impact international politics, its leitmotif being a determined European attempt to ‘anchor’ the United States President Donald Trump to the Western alliance system. On his part, Trump, who is forever buoyant with novel ideas, is looking for ways to get the alliance to be useful to his ‘America First’ policy. Collaterally, Russia stands to gain. 

Trump cut short his participation at the G-7 summit in Canada, rendering the event inconsequential. The meeting ended with no statement on Ukraine. The Hague Declaration issued after the NATO summit made only a 36-word bland reference to Ukraine stating “Allies reaffirm their enduring sovereign commitments to provide support to Ukraine, whose security contributes to ours, and, to this end, will include direct contributions towards Ukraine’s defence and its defence industry when calculating Allies’ defence spending.” The body language of Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte at the Hague meeting showed the tension in the air, as he slavishly kept pampering Trump’s vanities — even calling him "Daddy". As the master of ceremonies, Rutte tactfully steered the event away from the Ukraine war.

The two summit meetings signalled Europe’s tacit acceptance that Trump is hunting for peace with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in a solo act. But Trump expects Europe to pay for the Ukraine war because it is Europe’s security at stake. In a desperate reminder that Trump too has European blood, the new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, on his maiden visit to the White House, on June 5, presented the big man with a gold-framed birth certificate of his grandfather Frederick Trump, who in 1885 had emigrated from Kallstadt, Palatinate (then part of the Kingdom of Bavaria), to the US at age 16 and became a US citizen.

Trump enjoys flattery — why not — but Merz’s magic didn’t work. Merz, who expounds war with Russia, is a staunch opponent of energy ties with Russia, even at the cost of Germany’s deindustrialisation. But Trump has other ideas. A general licence issued by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) already lifts the sanctions on Russian banks to conduct financial transactions ‘related to civil nuclear energy’. The OFAC licence also lifted sanctions on civil nuclear-related transactions from the Russian Central Bank and Russia’s largest lender Sber Bank and several others. 

Such unilateral US moves fly in the face of the anti-Russian leadership in Brussels. Arguably, Trump, like his predecessor Joe Biden, is also ‘weaponising’ sanctions but in a reverse direction to create conditions encouraging Moscow to be co-operative with Washington. Biden and the EU got nothing out of sanctions except resistance and spite from Russia. Interestingly, in a different context, Trump is currently trying the same approach to Iran and China, also by relaxing the sanctions on their oil trade.

The NATO allies baited Trump with an agreement to jack up their defence expenditure to a whopping 5 per cent of the national budget from the existing level of 2-3 per cent. Trump is pleased. As quid pro quo, he vaguely promised that the US would protect NATO allies, recognising that “they [Europeans] love their countries”! But didn’t mention Article 5, a principle that goes to the very heart of the alliance. Nonetheless, NATO greets Trump’s words, stoically as good enough. 

All in all, at his news conference at The Hague, Trump summed up, “This was a tremendous summit, and I enjoyed it very much.” He added that he understood the central role the US plays in the defence of Europe, but framed the thought this way: “They [Europeans] want to protect their country, and they need the United States, and without the United States, it’s not going to be the same.” Make no mistake, Trump eyes the increased allocation for Europe’s militarisation with a hefty portion on critical areas like air defence and satellite intelligence, where Americans are indispensable. As it is, the largest share of US arms exports goes to Europe; in 2020-2024, it touched 35 per cent.

No sooner than the Hague summit ended, Putin spoke up for the first time, suggesting a meeting with Trump. He said on Friday, "I am always open to contacts and meetings. I know that Mister Trump also talked about the possibility of meetings. Well, just like him, I believe that such meetings should be organised.” Trump reacted with elation saying, “Vladimir Putin made some very nice statements today. He respects our country again. He didn't respect it a year ago, I can tell you right now. Putin respects our country, and President Xi of China respects our country. Kim Jong Un respects our country. They respect our country again.”

How far emotions play a role in diplomacy is always debatable. But the Kremlin has taken note that the NATO summit skipped the principal security challenges that should have been its focus, such as meaningful deliverables for Ukraine, future policy toward Russia, or the rising challenges of China. Most certainly, Moscow sees this potentially as more than a ‘butterfly effect’. No one in Europe is talking anymore about a ‘coalition of the willing’ to prolong the Ukraine war, which will in all probability end now on Russia’s terms. Trump seems au fait with such an outcome.

The Kremlin and many thoughtful minds in Europe assess that Ukraine has fallen way down Trump’s priority list — and, therefore, NATO’s. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s reaction reflects a relaxed mood. Moscow sees that expert opinion is calling for a rethink in the EU’s financial sanctions on Russia. 

Therefore, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Putin has come to estimate that the time has come for a Russia-US summit, which Trump had been seeking. Coincidence or not, Putin and Xi Jinping will not be attending the forthcoming BRICS Summit.

(M K Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.