<p>It was evident after the August 2024 political coup in Dhaka that a weak and unstable Bangladesh will pose a security threat to India. A strong coalition of a trigger-happy army and Islamic radical elements, aided and abetted by goons and vandals are operating behind the veneer of a puppet administration presided over by an economist who has no control over the situation. Attacks on minorities like Hindus, Christians and Buddhists, vandalising places of worship of minorities and dismantling of democratic institutions through physical attacks, threats and intimidation are tell-tale signs of a breakdown of the constitutional mechanism. Little wonder that the international forces and domestic outfits in Bangladesh that are inimical to India’s security and strategic interests in the region are looking to fish in troubled waters.</p>.<p>The continuing turmoil in Bangladesh will have a cascading effect on not only its immediate neighbourhood but have a ripple effect on South East Asia and its economy, and the trade and sea lanes of communication, especially to the east of the Indian Ocean. The region has been identified with drug and human trafficking, trade of illicit arms, synthetic drugs and heroin, highly active private armies, and armed non-state actors who alternate between aiding rogue regimes and pulling them down at will.</p>.<p>The 2021 coup in Myanmar by the military junta which deposed the National League for Democracy (NLD) government led by Aung San Suu Kyi has destabilised the country. The situation has deteriorated due to the launch offensive by several armed groups and non-state actors. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA) have begun armed conflicts with the junta’s army in Shan and Rakhine states. AA, which has been at loggerheads with the ruling junta, has inflicted humiliating defeats on the nation’s army by capturing several military headquarters and outposts in Rakhine. The Buddhist groups in Rakhine launched the United League of Arakan (ULA) as a political party; AA is is believed to be the military arm of the political movement.</p>.<p>The Rakhine state is densely populated by several ethnic groups. Action by the Myanmar army resulted in a mass exodus of Rohingyas into nearby Bangladesh. While ULA prefers a soft line on the issue of accommodating Rohingyas in the state, some AA elements have mounted an attack on Rohingya settlements, like in 2017, leading to another Rohingya exodus.</p>.<p>The Sheikh Hasina government was not willing to engage with AA on the return of the Rohingya refugees. According to news reports, after the Dhaka coup, the Bangladesh army had deputed a team of negotiators to talk to the AA top brass on two key issues – the resettlement of Rohingyas overstaying in Bangladesh and uninterrupted supply lines to the rebel outfit. If Bangladesh’s “safe passage” request for Rohingyas fails to evoke a favourable response from AA, these displaced people will be diverted towards India, creating a huge demographic challenge and refugee influx.</p>.<p>A close working relationship between the Bangladesh army and AA will pose challenges to India’s strategic outreach with Myanmar. The deep-sea Sittwe port in Rakhine, inaugurated in May 2023, is an important part of the Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) which seeks to link India’s North East with South East Asia through a highway and the river Kaladan. With a conflict happening just five kilometres from the port, New Delhi has all the reasons to be concerned. It will be a disaster if the Bangladesh army partners with AA to hit the operations in the Sittwe port.</p>.<p>Furthermore, China is using Kyaukphyu as the terminal for its $1.5 billion oil and natural gas pipeline to Kunming, the capital city of the Yunnan province in South West China, as part of its China-Myanmar Economic Corridor project under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).</p>.<p>India put its best diplomatic foot forward by hosting officers of the junta-led State Administration Council and representatives of political parties aligned with the present dispensation with a view to broker peace between warring parties and bring all stakeholders to the negotiation table. The efforts are directed towards a free and fair election and a return to democracy.</p>.<p>A chaotic Bangladesh dabbling with non-state actors in a conflict-ridden Myanmar will seriously impact India’s strategic endeavours in the region. New Delhi will have to act, sooner than later.</p>
<p>It was evident after the August 2024 political coup in Dhaka that a weak and unstable Bangladesh will pose a security threat to India. A strong coalition of a trigger-happy army and Islamic radical elements, aided and abetted by goons and vandals are operating behind the veneer of a puppet administration presided over by an economist who has no control over the situation. Attacks on minorities like Hindus, Christians and Buddhists, vandalising places of worship of minorities and dismantling of democratic institutions through physical attacks, threats and intimidation are tell-tale signs of a breakdown of the constitutional mechanism. Little wonder that the international forces and domestic outfits in Bangladesh that are inimical to India’s security and strategic interests in the region are looking to fish in troubled waters.</p>.<p>The continuing turmoil in Bangladesh will have a cascading effect on not only its immediate neighbourhood but have a ripple effect on South East Asia and its economy, and the trade and sea lanes of communication, especially to the east of the Indian Ocean. The region has been identified with drug and human trafficking, trade of illicit arms, synthetic drugs and heroin, highly active private armies, and armed non-state actors who alternate between aiding rogue regimes and pulling them down at will.</p>.<p>The 2021 coup in Myanmar by the military junta which deposed the National League for Democracy (NLD) government led by Aung San Suu Kyi has destabilised the country. The situation has deteriorated due to the launch offensive by several armed groups and non-state actors. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA) have begun armed conflicts with the junta’s army in Shan and Rakhine states. AA, which has been at loggerheads with the ruling junta, has inflicted humiliating defeats on the nation’s army by capturing several military headquarters and outposts in Rakhine. The Buddhist groups in Rakhine launched the United League of Arakan (ULA) as a political party; AA is is believed to be the military arm of the political movement.</p>.<p>The Rakhine state is densely populated by several ethnic groups. Action by the Myanmar army resulted in a mass exodus of Rohingyas into nearby Bangladesh. While ULA prefers a soft line on the issue of accommodating Rohingyas in the state, some AA elements have mounted an attack on Rohingya settlements, like in 2017, leading to another Rohingya exodus.</p>.<p>The Sheikh Hasina government was not willing to engage with AA on the return of the Rohingya refugees. According to news reports, after the Dhaka coup, the Bangladesh army had deputed a team of negotiators to talk to the AA top brass on two key issues – the resettlement of Rohingyas overstaying in Bangladesh and uninterrupted supply lines to the rebel outfit. If Bangladesh’s “safe passage” request for Rohingyas fails to evoke a favourable response from AA, these displaced people will be diverted towards India, creating a huge demographic challenge and refugee influx.</p>.<p>A close working relationship between the Bangladesh army and AA will pose challenges to India’s strategic outreach with Myanmar. The deep-sea Sittwe port in Rakhine, inaugurated in May 2023, is an important part of the Kaladan Multi-modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) which seeks to link India’s North East with South East Asia through a highway and the river Kaladan. With a conflict happening just five kilometres from the port, New Delhi has all the reasons to be concerned. It will be a disaster if the Bangladesh army partners with AA to hit the operations in the Sittwe port.</p>.<p>Furthermore, China is using Kyaukphyu as the terminal for its $1.5 billion oil and natural gas pipeline to Kunming, the capital city of the Yunnan province in South West China, as part of its China-Myanmar Economic Corridor project under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).</p>.<p>India put its best diplomatic foot forward by hosting officers of the junta-led State Administration Council and representatives of political parties aligned with the present dispensation with a view to broker peace between warring parties and bring all stakeholders to the negotiation table. The efforts are directed towards a free and fair election and a return to democracy.</p>.<p>A chaotic Bangladesh dabbling with non-state actors in a conflict-ridden Myanmar will seriously impact India’s strategic endeavours in the region. New Delhi will have to act, sooner than later.</p>
