Uttar Pradesh bypolls: Test for the Yadav clan in Mainpuri and Rampur

SP is busy invoking its patriarch, Mulayam Singh Yadav, as its trump card to evoke a sympathy vote and BJP is finding it difficult to counter that

The ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) is doing its utmost to win the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat in Uttar Pradesh, which is currently the battleground for three significant by-elections. The most crucial of these is the Mainpuri battle, where the Lok Sabha seat fell because of the demise of Samajwadi Party founder and patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav.

If the BJP has made Mainpuri a prestige issue, it is also a do-or-die battle for the SP. In June, the Akhilesh Yadav-led party suffered a humiliating defeat in two of its Lok Sabha bastions – Azamgarh and Rampur - in the bypolls of these two seats. The bypolls were necessitated after Akhilesh Yadav and Azam Khan quit their Azamgarh and Rampur Lok Sabha seats, respectively, to retain their Assembly seats, Karhal and Rampur Sadar.

But Azam Khan, the SP co-founder, had to quit Rampur Sadar after his conviction by a court. Despite Azam Khan's incarceration in jail for more than two years, followed by his conviction, he does not appear to be evoking much sympathy from the electorate. Even Azam's close confidante Fasahat Ali Khan has been wooed away by the BJP.

The third bypoll is for a Vidhan Sabha seat in Khatauli in Western UP, where SP ally, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), is all set to give the BJP a run for its money. Interestingly, while the BJP seems to be pumping in all its
resources to wrest the SP bastions of Mainpuri and Rampur, the ruling party appears to be in total disarray in Khatauli, where the seat fell vacant following the disqualification of BJP strongman and MLA Vikram Saini. The party has fielded his wife, who does not seem to be getting sympathy or support even from within.

Undeniably, the battle lines are more sharply drawn in Mainpuri than anywhere else. The BJP is leaving no stone unturned to upset the SP applecart, which has fielded Mulayam Singh Yadav's daughter-in-law and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav's wife, Dimple Yadav. The BJP has detailed more than 20 ministers, including two deputy chief ministers and at least two dozen legislators, to go door-to-door campaigning. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath plans to address more than two rallies in the constituency.

The BJP handpicked SP turncoat Raghuraj Singh Shakya, known for his proximity to senior SP leader and Akhilesh Yadav's 'chacha' Shivpal Singh Yadav. His candidature is part of the BJP's strategy to hit the Samajwadi Party where it hurt most - the feud within the Yadav clan, particularly between Shivpal and Akhilesh. However, Akhilesh played smarter by seeking to send the message far and wide that he had already buried the hatchet and all was well between the 'chacha' and 'bhatija' (uncle and nephew). Dimple visited Shivpal's house and touched his feet. This picture went viral on mainstream and social media. What followed was Akhilesh touching his uncle's feet in full public view at an election rally addressed jointly by both in the clan's native village Saifai.

Significantly, both made it a point to impress upon the audience that the family stood united once again. "We are and have always been one family; if some differences had cropped up, these were essentially political; but now even those differences are over, and we are back as one", said Akhilesh Yadav amid cheers from the surging crowd. Likewise, Shivpal Yadav too made it a point to tell the people, "Every place I visited in this constituency, people sought to convey to me that we must unite to give BJP a run for its money. See, we have bowed down before the will of the people and are standing here before you united and strong." He predicted a resounding victory for Dimple.

A jittery BJP is harping that the threat it posed has led to this unity in the Yadav clan. "It is out of political compulsion of an impending defeat by the BJP that the uncle and nephew have got together again," declared Bhupendra Chaudhary, the state BJP chief. "But let me tell you that even this forced unity in the family will not be able to save SP in Mainpuri," he challenged.

Significantly, while the SP is busy invoking its patriarch, Mulayam Singh Yadav, as its trump card to evoke a sympathy vote, the BJP is now finding it difficult to counter that. However, the ruling dispensation relies on caste permutation and combination in the constituency. According to local sources, the Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency has 4-5 lakh Yadav voters, followed by 3 lakh Shakya, 3.75 lakh non-Shakya OBCs, 2 lakh Thakurs, 1 lakh Brahmins besides about 1.5 lakh Dalits, around 90,000 Muslims and about 50,000 others.

The BJP leadership believes that SP's support would remain limited to Yadavs and Muslims while all other castes would fall in line with the saffron party. "It was for this reason that Mulayam Singh Yadav's winning margin came down from 3.20 lakhs in 2014 to just about 94,000 in 2019," argues BJP spokesman and MLC Vijay Pathak. "And now that Mulayam Singh Ji is not there himself, SP's support is bound to come down," he argued.

However, some seasoned regional political analysts believe that the BJP's calculations could be far-fetched. "The BJP is going on the presumption that all the non-Yadav OBCs and upper caste Brahmins and Thakurs would go for their nominee. They also claim to have made deep inroads in the Dalit vote, which was up for grabs after the fading away of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)," points out Dinesh Shakya, a well-known journalist in the region. "Sure enough, that is not how things work on the ground. Far from other things, one cannot overlook that this bypoll is for winning the legacy of Mulayam Singh Yadav, who was always seen as a father figure here. His demise has evoked unparalleled sympathy," he says. Journalist Subhash Tripathi predicts tremendous support for Dimple Yadav "because she is the 'bahu' (daughter-in-law) of Mulayam Singh Yadav."

Both contend that while the support of Yadavs and Muslims for Dimple goes without saying, the vote of other communities, including Shakyas, is likely to get divided between the BJP and SP. And that could give Dimple an edge in what is bound to remain a closely contested election.

(Sharat Pradhan is a Lucknow-based journalist and author)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.