What next for Ghulam Nabi Azad, the loyalist-turned-rebel

With the Assembly polls likely, would Congress ignore Azad, a rare leader with acceptability in both Jammu and Kashmir regions

After raising the banner of revolt, leading the group of 23 party leaders, Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad had been cooling his heels on the sidelines of the party. For three decades, Azad, a Gandhi family loyalist, held key positions in the party and Congress-led governments, both at the Centre and in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). The veteran is now on a collision course with the party leadership. He has embarked on a whirlwind tour of his political turf, Jammu and Kashmir, ahead of the much speculated Assembly polls in the newly carved union territory (UT).

Azad is the most prominent leader of the Congress in J&K and commands public support in both the Jammu and Kashmir regions, which are diametrically opposite in their political temperament. However, his position has become untenable in the party as he headed the G23. The party neglected Azad in the affairs of the Congress's J&K unit. But Azad is on a high after successful public and workers' meetings he has addressed in both the regions, which evoked a good response.

Azad has held his meetings under the party's banner. He has, however, neither involved the Pradesh Congress Committee in these programmes nor has he uttered a word against the party's top leadership. Azad has focussed his speeches on demanding statehood for J&K and immediate holding of the elections. At the same time, he has maintained a studied silence on the restoration of Article 370. While he has kept a window open for reconciliation within the Congress, there is speculation he could chart a new political course.

Also Read | Congress ‘dissenter’ Azad making his presence felt in J&K’s frozen politics

Is floating a new political party an option for Azad?

Azad felt hurt after Rajni Patil, the Congress in charge of J&K, criticised him in the presence of former party chief Rahul Gandhi during the latter's recent tour to Jammu. Following this, the party ignored involving Azad in its affairs at the national and the UT levels. It also overlooked or sidelined a significant section of his supporters, which led to 20 former ministers, MLAs, MLCs and office bearers resigning from their respective party posts.

The anti-Azad camp saw it as a senior leader's pressure-building tactic through his supporters. Azad is gradually upping the ante to be given a fair say in the party matters or his possible quest for a new political forum that he has, until now, denied vehemently.

Azad's relevance in becoming a focal point to garner anti-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) votes has increased in Jammu and Kashmir regions. There are no political leaders in the opposition ranks in Jammu to match his stature. In Kashmir, leaders such as former chief ministers Farooq Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti are fighting for their survival under the BJP's onslaught. Azad's acceptability in both regions puts him in an advantageous position.

There is little doubt now that Azad has presented the Congress party with a fait accompli to accept his dominant position as there is none to match his stature. The Congress has no one else of Azad's profile in its ranks to lead the party in the Assembly polls. Through his public outreach, Azad has a two-pronged strategy. He is trying to redeem his position in the party as he is entering the twilight of his political career. If the Congress high command fails to read the message, he positions himself as a leader with the broadest possible acceptability to head a non-BJP coalition.

The Congress is in a dilemma on how to deal with Azad. According to reports, Congress president Sonia Gandhi is keen on a rapprochement, but Azad is taking his time. The first step towards any reconciliation would be a more significant say for him in the party's organisational matters, particularly in J&K, which would include the selection of candidates for the polls.

Azad's tour across the UT is also an exercise in looking for potential candidates. It will be interesting to see how the Congress high command assuages Azad. Would the high command, especially Rahul Gandhi, overlook Azad's role in the G23 rebellion and turn to him to lead the party in the J&K Assembly polls?

After all, the region offers a good chance for the Congress's comparative revival as the recently held bypolls in Himachal Pradesh, where the Congress performed creditably, indicated. Assembly polls are due in Himachal Pradesh at the end of next year and early next year in the neighbouring Uttrakhand and Punjab. The Congress is in the reckoning in all the three states.

From the Congress perspective, an organisationally disturbed J&K, although a UT with a small legislative assembly and Azad forced to chart a separate course from that of the party's, will spoil the mood in this region and could dent the party's chances in the other poll-bound states.

Azad, for one, is buoyed by the public response to his public contact programmes, which have increased his bargaining power. It will make reconciliation difficult for the Congress top-brass given Azad's preeminent position in UT's politics.

(The writer is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.