Will China succeed in pulling Bhutan away from India?

On December 6, Bhutan’s King Jigme Khesar Namgyal Wangchuk and Queen Jetsun Pema concluded their two-day trip to India. During the visit they met Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar.

New Delhi reiterated the unique relationship which both sides share and its commitment to development and growth of Bhutan. As per a statement by the Ministry of External Affairs, the meeting reflected “…the spirit of mutual trust, cooperation and profound understanding that underpins the bilateral relations between the two countries”. India also expressed support for the Gelephu Mindfulness City project, a pet project of the king while other discussions focussed on clean energy and hydropower.

Although India and Bhutan have close ties, in the last few years Beijing has been pressuring Thimphu to settle the border dispute. Bhutan and China have yet to establish diplomatic ties. Bhutan did, however, announce last year that it was getting closer to settling the border issues with Beijing. In October, 2023, the two Bhutan and China signed a ‘cooperation agreement’ to push for resolution and demarcation of the border. Bhutanese Foreign Minister Tandi Dorji met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi too. Yi asserted that, “The conclusion of boundary negotiations and the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Bhutan fully serve the long-term and fundamental interests of the country and nation of Bhutan”. Thimphu also voiced it support for the One-China Policy.

The construction of villages across the disputed border is being used by Beijing to put pressure on Bhutan. There have been multiple reports which suggest that these villages have been expanding in size and numbers. They are a part of a bigger Chinese plan to change the ground realities and in effect change the overall narratives surrounding the territorial disputes.

When it comes to defence, the Bhutanese army is small and is dependent for training and help from India. This was obvious during the 2017 Doklam crisis. The Indian Army stepped in to defend Bhutanese sovereignty and stop the construction of road by China. This resulted in a 73-day standoff between Indian and Chinese forces. Bhutan’s diplomatic space is further curtailed as the existing border issue is a tripartite one, and any resolution will have to keep New Delhi’s concerns in purview as it directly impacts India’s security concerns. The region is quite close to India’s Siliguri Corridor or ‘chicken’s neck’ which connects the Indian mainland to the Northeastern part of the country.

Bhutan is caught up in a balancing act of managing its friendship with India and the challenges to its sovereignty by China. It is believed that the doubling of financial support to Bhutan from Rs 5,000 crore to Rs 10,000 crore for 2024-2029, during Modi’s visit to Bhutan at the beginning of 2024, was to mitigate Chinese pressure. Border talks between Thimphu and Beijing have been underway since 1984, however, the Chinese believe that “India is the hurdle here.”

When it comes to the recent visit, one cannot shake the idea that the resolving of patrolling rights between India and China after four-and-a-half years of standoff post-Galwan would have cast its shadow. For Thimphu, a positive development between New Delhi and Beijing bores well. If the two major powers are engaging with each other, it is easy for Bhutan to balance the relationship. However, given that the India and Bhutan are bound by the friendship treaty (first signed in 1949 and updated in 2007) and India’s consistent financial and military help to Bhutan, limits Thimphu’s unilateral diplomatic manoeuvrability.

The border issue has a direct bearing on Bhutan’s sovereignty and economic aspirations too. However, the domestic challenges of migration and unemployment are quite pertinent for Thimphu. The fact that most of its younger population is migrating to countries like Canada and Australia in the hope for better opportunities doesn’t bode well for the Bhutanese economy. In a growing globalised world, Bhutan as a landlocked nation is limited in its reach. It also has very limited areas for economic growth as well. Thus, no surprises that China putting Bhutan as a top destination for Chinese tourists may be an attempt to edge Bhutan. In addition China is also engaged in the telecom sector, Internet access as well as 3G and 4G telecom networks in Bhutan.

China is using the carrot and stick formula to lure Bhutan to shake the yolk of India’s friendship. It is obvious that the immediate benefits of engaging with Beijing can be alluring, however, the issue for Bhutan is about sovereignty and the ideas of nationhood. And the choice in that regard is quite an obvious one for Bhutan.

(Gunjan Singh is Associate Professor, OP Jindal Global University.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.