Will Narendra Modi’s compromise with RSS work?

Will the notification lifting the ban on government officials associating with the RSS stem criticism from Nagpur?

There is more than one way to read the Union government’s notification removing the ban on government officials associating with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Was it possibly an olive branch extended to the RSS, which has been relentless in criticising Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership?

The RSS leadership has welcomed the decision, but denied that it had made any such demand. It would seem that the notification serves no other purpose than buying peace with the RSS.

Government officials also were not raring to join the RSS. They might have flocked to the daily shakhas or branch meetings if Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) were in ascendancy and likely to stay in power for decades to come. But with the Modi government more precariously perched, such a step would be suicidal as it would draw criticism from any other government that comes in.

Before the general elections, Modi’s treatment of RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat was as instrumentalist as his dealings with senior leaders of the BJP — marginalised and taken out of formaldehyde for the occasional public display as supporting his regime.

The moment the BJP slipped from 303 seats in the previous Lok Sabha to 240 in the current one, democracy’s iron law of numbers came into play. The election mascot of Hindutva became vulnerable and was seen to have feet of clay.

When the BJP's arrogance was at its peak, its president J P Nadda claimed that the party was saksham (capable) and ran its own affairs. Reversing the relationship between the parent organisation and its political front the BJP, Nadda declared that the RSS was only an “ideological front”. He said, “In the beginning, we were less capable, smaller and needed the RSS. Today, we have grown and we are capable. The BJP runs itself. That’s the difference.”

A barrage of criticism after the election results demonstrated how badly the relationship between the RSS and the BJP had frayed. Within a week of the BJP’s dismal performance, Bhagwat launched the first broadside against Modi pointedly saying that a “true sevak (servant, volunteer) never develops ahankaar (egotism)” and without naming Modi or any BJP leader criticised the harsh language used against political adversaries in the election campaign where “decorum was not kept”. He specifically criticised the Modi government for not paying attention to the ethnic violence in Manipur.

Senior RSS functionary Indresh Kumar went a step further and admonished the BJP leadership saying, “Those who did bhakti of Lord Ram became arrogant. That party was declared the biggest party, but was topped at 240 by Lord Ram due to arrogance.” Bhagwat’s reference to “man wanting to become Superman” and then “Devta (demi-god)” and “Bhagwan (god)” was seen by many as veiled criticism of Modi claiming that he was a non-biological being sent as an “instrument of god”.

Will the notification lifting the ban on government officials associating with the RSS stem the criticism? Media reports, quoting anonymous sources, have claimed that the Modi government has received an assurance that the RSS leaders would not publicly criticise its leadership after its ‘positive gesture’.

However, this truce can only be fragile. The electoral signal from the 2024 general elections was that Modi had probably had his innings at the top. The party stands behind him but more out of fear and lack of an alternative leadership than the kind of enthusiasm it displayed earlier.

It is naïve to argue that the RSS is aligning itself with the public mood by distancing itself from Modi. The public mood has swung away not only from Modi but also from Hindutva to a large extent. The Faizabad (Ayodhya) defeat of the BJP to Dalit leader Awadhesh Prasad underlined this in no uncertain terms. It is more likely that the RSS is reflecting sentiments against Modi’s leadership that are growing within the BJP itself.

It is too early to say that the leadership game has slipped out of Modi’s hands. Being in power he may yet be able to retrieve it. However, no one in the BJP seriously expects him to lead the party in the 2029 general elections. The RSS and the BJP may not have chosen his replacement as yet, but there is little doubt that the succession battle has begun.

Not everyone in the party may be comfortable with Amit Shah and his brusque manner. Those unhappy with the prospect of Shah’s leadership, see hope in Yogi Adityanath, the Uttar Pradesh chief minister, as the next Hindutva icon that can lead the BJP nationally. The RSS too may well be fond of Adityanath’s brand of politics and instant ‘bulldozer justice’, especially against any real or imaginary misdemeanours by the minority community.

Recent attempts to destabilise Adityanath using his deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya have come to nought. Adityanath knows that the bye-elections in 10 assembly seats which are to take place by the end of this year will be crucial for his prestige both within UP and the BJP. Of these 10 seats, the Samajwadi Party had five, the BJP had three, and its alliance partners the Nishad Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal one each.

Adityanath has become proactive in taking the lead and has set up a team of ministers to look after preparations even before the BJP organisation has started its groundwork. Significantly his two deputy chief ministers were absent from the meeting he took to review the party’s prospects in the bye-elections.

If Adityanath’s future depends on the 10 impending bye-elections, Modi too has to show that he retains his magic by winning the Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand assembly elections later this year. In none of the states does the BJP have a clear edge as of now.

What happens in these three state elections and Jammu & Kashmir, if assembly elections are indeed held there, would have a crucial impact on the continuance of Modi’s leadership of the BJP and his relationship with the RSS.

(Bharat Bhushan is a Delhi-based journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.