Gujarat outcome, a road map of the future

Assembly polls 2012 Will Congress end the Narendra Modi-BJP juggernaut

From real grassroots election rallies to the more virtual three dimensional holographic campaign, Chief Minister Narendra Modi is pulling off a larger than life electoral fight that could well decide his political future.

The spoilers - the Opposition Congress, riddled with factionalism, but desperate to stop what many analysts believe is an unstoppable Modi; and an 87-year-old Sangh veteran, Keshubhai Patel, who without an organisation but holding the key to a politically significant community vote, is trying to halt Modi in his tracks.

This sums up the run-up to Gujarat Assembly elections, 2012.  It is an election touted as the roadmap of the future of this country. An intense political battle, the results of which will hold the key to Narendra Modi's national political ambitions. Given the critical nature of the elections for the BJP, the top rung of the party has been lending its support  behind Modi, even calling him a ‘capable prime ministerial candidate’.

While the CM’s political future is juxtaposed with this election, the BJP’s future in this state is at stake and the survival of the Congress, which has been out of power for the last 17 years, is being questioned. For former chief minister Keshubhai Patel too, this election is crucial. He is banking on the Patel community votes, which comprises of 18 per cent of the total population. Sensing the anti-incumbency factor in certain constituencies, Patel has floated his Gujarat Parivartan Party, promising a change if voted to power.

Modi too realises the importance of this election; so, while he is criss-crossing the state and appealing to the people on an emotive note, to vote for him and not look at the candidates, he has given up his no repeat experiment and continues to believe in the old - a theory that does not go parallel with Modi.

The emotional appeal of the CM makes it evident that this election means the most to him. And even as several media and research organisations have given Modi a clear sweep in the polls, the BJP does not want to be lulled into complacency. “We have never believed in these pre-poll surveys; the mandate is ultimately in the hands of the people and they will vote for the CM not on the basis of these surveys,’’ said Purushottam Rupala, national vice president of the BJP. He said the maligning campaign against the BJP by the Congress will definitely not work in their favour.  The Congress, on the other hand, says that they are very serious about this election. Hence, there are senior leaders who are campaigning and MPs are contesting the assembly elections. “Though there are claims of development, voters believe that the reality is not as it is made out to be,’’ said Gujarat Congress Committee chief Arjun Modhwadia. Rupala, the BJP leader also seen as a strongman in the Saurashtra region, which is one of the deciding regions for any party in the state says, ``The people, especially the farmers, are feeling the difference; they are getting water and electricity and there is no reason why they should not vote for the BJP.’’

While many say that 2002 election was Modi’s charisma, 2007 was his enigma, 2012 has no such clear issues on which Modi could plank and claim a clear majority. But the Congress does not want to believe that. Modhwadia says, ``Why no issues, there are issues of corruption, there are issues of development not having percolated to the lower levels and this a government for the industrialists and not the common people.’’

So, while Modi baiters feel that it is time for the Modi regime to probably dwindle, not many are convinced about who is the next best alternative. So, while the wife of the anti-Modi cop Sanjiv Bhatt is pitted against the CM in his constituency, Shweta Bhatt is definitely drawing the media’s attention if not voters.

And not many are ruling out the fact that the widow of slain minister Haren Pandya will also draw some sympathy vote in favour of Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party.

While caste factor continues to dominate very heavily in Gujarat politics, especially this year, Modi has carefully handpicked candidates, shifted a few of them from their parent constituencies. The Congress has dropped some of its senior leaders like former deputy chief minister Narhari Amin, who has joined the BJP claiming that the Congress was a party for the leaders and not the workers.

Political analysts believe that it is, indeed, an important election for both Modi and the Congress. Analyst Dinesh Shukla says, “The Congress has to prove to the people that they are serious about whatever they are promising. Hence the carpet bombing of leaders and advertisement campaigns.’’ For the BJP, it is not just Modi’s future but the future of the party in 2014, and its future political equations. “Modi is trying to contest on the development plank and if he wins with a thumping majority, retaining the number of seats that he had won in 2007, then he will be able to convince some of the regional political parties to align, even those who have till now been maintaining a safe political distance from Modi,” adds Shukla.