Explained | Bolsonaro trial at Brazil's Supreme Court nears verdicts

Brasilia: Brazil's Supreme Court will on Tuesday begin hearing closing arguments in the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who faces charges of plotting a coup to remain in power after he lost the 2022 election. The case grabbed global attention after US President Donald Trump denounced it as a "witch hunt" against his ally and retaliated by imposing a 50 per cent tariff on many Brazilian goods.

Whyis Bolsonaro on trial?

Bolsonaro, who was president of Brazil between 2019 and 2022, was charged with trying to cling to power after he lost his reelection bid to leftist leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Brazil's top prosecutor accused Bolsonaro of orchestrating a plot that included a plan to poison Lula and his running mate and kill Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the 2022 elections as the top judge on Brazil's electoral court. Moraes now oversees the coup case. Bolsonaro has denied making any attempt to overthrow Brazil's democracy, but he acknowledged at a deposition that he took part in meetings looking for ways to reverse the outcome of the 2022 election.

He has been accused of five crimes: taking part in an armed criminal organization; attempting to violently abolish democracy; coup d'état; damage to government property; and damage to protected cultural assets. In their formal arguments last month, lawyers for the former president said he is innocent on all five counts. The charges are also linked to Bolsonaro's alleged role in the riots of January 2023, when thousands of his supporters invaded and vandalized the country's Congress, presidential palace, and Supreme Court, in a grim echo of the U.S. Capitol invasion two years earlier by fans of Trump.

What comes next in the trial?

A five-justice panel at the Supreme Court is expected to deliver verdicts and sentences on the five counts against Bolsonaro and seven of his allies during sessions scheduled from September 2 to 12.

The panel includes Moraes, who is overseeing the case, and four other justices, among them Cristiano Zanin, a former attorney for Lula and Flavio Dino, the leftist president's former justice minister.

As president, Bolsonaro appointed two Supreme Court justices who are not on the panel.

Where will Bolsonara be during the trial?

Bolsonaro is under house arrest in a high-end gated community in the capital Brasilia. One of his lawyers said it was unclear if the former president would attend the sessions. He is wearing a court-ordered ankle monitor and is under full surveillance after investigators found a document suggesting he may have considered seeking political asylum in Argentina – an allegation that his lawyers deny.

Since July, Bolsonaro has been banned from contacting foreign officials, using social media, or approaching embassies.

What happens if Bolsonaro is convicted?

Although the maximum combined sentence for the crimes Bolsonaro is accused of in Brazil could exceed 40 years, lawyers anticipate a shorter term, noting that 40 years is the country's maximum allowable prison sentence. Criminal convicts often serve reduced prison terms in Brazil.

The Supreme Court case is the latest obstacle to the political career of Bolsonaro, who has expressed his intention to run for president again in 2026. In 2023, Brazil's federal electoral court disqualified him from running for public office until 2030, citing abuse of political power during his 2022 presidential campaign.