Explained | Who wins and who loses from Trump’s return

If there is one thing Donald Trump is clear on, it’s winners and losers.

The transactional nature of his first presidency showed how he ranked leaders based on their perceived strengths and weaknesses — and his personal taste. That meant Germany was cut down to size but the likes of North Korea got an audience.

How everyone fits into his orbit this time will come down to how many ingratiate themselves and what kind of relationships they already had. Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu will celebrate a fellow political survivor while Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy will need to put on a brave face. Others like India’s Narendra Modi and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman will seek out deals without the finger wagging they had to endure under other US administrations.

Here is a look at who will be pegged as a friend or foe in Trump world.

Winners

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

He’s had a tense relationship with outgoing President Joe Biden and will welcome the arrival of a longtime ally in the White House. 

Trump is likely to reinforce US support for Israel. Biden paused some military aid over concern at Palestinian civilians’ suffering from Israel’s war on Hamas, which the US designates a terrorist group.

The incoming US leader will also be more sympathetic to Netanyahu’s insistence on pursuing the battle against Iranian proxies and refusal to countenance a future Palestinian state, despite the risks of igniting a bigger regional war.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Trump’s return is a boost for Modi, who’s faced scrutiny for his Hindu nationalist policies at home and allegations of extra-judicial killings abroad. Modi and Trump share close personal ties, often praise each other publicly, and call each other friends.

A Trump administration may not support Canada’s push to hold India’s government accountable for alleged killings of dissidents. Trump’s promise of negotiating a deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine also gives Modi space to maintain close ties with Moscow, which supplies India with cheap oil and military equipment. The Biden administration, in contrast, had expressed frustration with New Delhi when Modi met Putin in Moscow in July.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin

Putin see Trump’s comeback as an opportunity to exploit divisions in the West and extract further gains in Ukraine. The incoming US president is expected to strain the unity of NATO allies and put the future of aid for Ukraine in doubt with his ‘America First’ policy.

His unpredictability, though, has some worried in the Kremlin that Trump could in the short-term escalate the conflict in a bid to force a settlement on Putin, with potentially disastrous consequences such as a nuclear confrontation. 

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

The kingdom’s de facto ruler will see an opportunity to revive long-stalled efforts to secure a key security pact with the US. Trump, whose team drew up the Abraham Accords that opened diplomatic ties between Israel and a number of Arab states, is expected to devote major attention to expanding that to Saudi Arabia.

If he can unlock an Israeli peace treaty with the kingdom, that would provide the political backing in Washington to extend the US security umbrella to Saudi Arabia and allow it to focus on the economy and ease fears of any potential threats from Iran. 

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni

Meloni has become staunchly pro-Atlantic but remains essentially a hard right politician - and while she had vowed to work with whomever won the US election, her affinity with Elon Musk will likely help her have the ear of the new US President. She will position herself to become a conduit between NATO, the EU, and the White House.

“If Trump gets to the White House, NATO won't break, we've been there before, but things will get tougher. The other big theme is China, but we have to understand that we Europeans can't be a go-between between the US and China,” said Francesco Talò, Meloni’s former chief diplomatic advisor. “We are part of the West, and the West has to remain united. Which means we have to avoid trade wars at all costs.”

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Turkey may be cautiously optimistic. Erdogan and Trump share a history of cordial communication, often speaking by phone, with Erdogan even referring to him as “my friend”. Unlike during the Biden era, a Trump presidency could offer Erdogan more direct access in Washington.

Trump’s anti-war stance and focus on trade may also work in Erdogan’s favor. However, Erdogan’s anti-Israel rhetoric could strain ties, and Turkey’s recent efforts to increase cooperation with China may pose challenges.

North Korea’s Leader Kim Jong Un

Perhaps the Asian leader most welcoming of Trump’s return is the North Korean dictator. Kim and Trump struck up a warm relationship over letters and two summit meetings during Trump’s first term, although ultimately that fizzled and no deal was reached to end North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear-tipped missiles able to reach the American mainland.

Kim has stiff-armed all American approaches for dialogue since then and instead grown close to Putin as North Korea’s arsenal of weapons of mass destruction has expanded. In the return of Trump, Kim may hope for an opportunity to reduce the American military presence in the region, as well as to weaken growing military ties between the US, Japan and South Korea. During Trump’s first term, the US dialed back military exercises with South Korea as a show of good will. 

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban

The five-term nationalist leader, whom Trump has praised for his strongman-style leadership, had made the boldest bet in Europe on Trump’s victory, praising him even when his return to power seemed a long-shot during criminal prosecutions in the US.

Now Orban is positioning himself as Trump’s man in Europe and is hoping that his personal ties with the next US president will shore up his standing in the EU, where he’s been considered a black sheep for his autocratic leanings and pro-Russian positions. Orban expects Trump to quickly end Russia’s war on Ukraine and to dial back US pressure on Hungary for its democratic backsliding.

Argentina’s President Javier Milei

Argentina’s president placed a big bet on Trump's victory and came out on top. Meeting the US leader for the first time in February, Milei didn't miss the opportunity to tell him what “a very great president” he had been while wishing him reelected.

Milei hopes a second Trump government will tip the scales in favor of Argentina at the International Monetary Fund just as the nation seeks a new deal to replace the record $44 billion program currently in place. The Argentine leader has also been cozying up to Musk — the two have met at least three times this year, and the billionaire has said his companies are looking for ways to invest in Argentina.

Losers

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy

He was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump but that doesn’t disguise the deep anxiety in Kyiv at the Republican’s victory. Ukraine is worried that Trump could apply pressure on it to give up land in peace talks with Russia and cut back financial and military support.

The change in the US administration comes as Russia is slowly making headway in its campaign to wrest more Ukrainian territory in the four regions it’s annexed. While Biden remained reluctant to back Ukraine’s NATO aspirations and refused to allow it to strike deep into Russian territory with Western arms, Trump’s vow to end the war in “24 hours” shows his priority is to exit the crisis.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian

Iran publicly has so far shrugged off the impact of another Trump presidency but it cuts off the path to diplomacy over its nuclear program that Tehran had eyed in a bid to ease the pressure on its sanctions-hit economy.

An important Israel backer, Trump applied a “maximum pressure” policy toward Tehran when he was last in the White House. He may want to isolate Iran even further by hardening strict US penalties that he imposed in his first term.  But Trump will also face a region that’s changed in recent years, with Iran repairing ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two countries that supported the “maximum pressure” stance.

China’s President Xi Jinping

For Xi, Trump's win comes at a bad time. His threats of a 60 per cent blanket tariff would decimate trade with America, taking out the one big bright spot holding up China's economy. It also raises more uncertainty just as Xi’s government rolls out a major stimulus package to boost growth and steady investor confidence. And it brings general uncertainty — something the Communist Party never likes. Still, there are some bright spots. Musk — who has extensive business interests in China — has shown he has Trump's ear. The Republican has also questioned whether the US would come to the aid of Taiwan, the self-ruled democracy Beijing claims as its own.

Trump’s taunting of the European Union on trade imbalances, and his ambivalence toward US security commitments to Asian allies, could also give Xi some space to mend diplomatic ties that had soured under Biden.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba

The election win puts new pressure on the newest leader in the Group of Seven trying to hold it together after the long-ruling coalition lost its majority in a recent national election. Trump has repeatedly cited Japan’s trade surplus with the US as a problem and called for Japan to pay more for the US military presence of around 55,000 troops, the largest permanent foreign deployment of American forces. Japan previously fended off calls to pay more for the US military but the current deal is up for renewal in 2026. Japan may also face additional pressure from Trump over its exports of chip making equipment to China, which the US has sought to curtail. 

Part of Japan’s ability to deal with demands from Trump previously was the close relationship the US leader struck up with the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, often over games of golf. Ishiba isn’t known to play golf, but can point to Japan lowering some of the burden on the US and helping to deepen their alliance. 

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum

Mexico is bracing to find out how Trump will carry out his tariffs plan, which could be an obstacle to its goal to increase exports to its northern neighbor through nearshoring, Another source of anxiety is an expected 2026 review of the free trade agreement between North American nations. Immigration is also a hot-button issue, with Trump threatening to put financial pressure on Mexico despite its crackdown that helped the US reduce border migration ahead of the election.

Former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador had a cordial relationship with Trump, even calling him “a strong and visionary man” a few months before leaving office. This successor has said Mexico’s relations with its northern neighbor but has rebuked Trump for the way he's described trade negotiations that were led by Marcelo Ebrard, now her economy minister.

Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer

Few of America’s traditional Western allies are starting from a more difficult place with Trump than the Labour leader. Barely four months on the job, Starmer has already had ugly dust-up with Trump, after the Republican campaign accused his left-leaning party of sending volunteers to campaign for Democrat candidate Kamala Harris.

Starmer called the storming of the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, a “direct attack on democracy” and his foreign secretary, David Lammy, in 2017 called then US president a “woman-hating, neo-Nazi-sympathizing sociopath.” More recently, he got into a public feud with Musk, after the billionaire industrial mused on Twitter that far right riots in the UK would lead to civil war.

While Starmer can tout the UK’s relatively balanced trade with the US and its historically strong levels of defense spending, such political differences may make it hard for him to convince Trump that the Anglo-American relationship is still “special.”

France’s President Emmanuel Macron

Macron already has experience working with Trump, giving him valuable experience compared to his European peers. Indeed, during Trump's first term the two leaders projected a showy alliance, including with a dinner atop the Eiffel tower. “Ready to work together as we did for four years,” Macron posted on X.

Trump’s return could also give added impetus for Macron’s trademark push to bolster the EU through deeper integration between its economies.

Despite the optics and the possibility for greater European leverage, there’s little economically to be gained for France and potentially a lot to lose if trade tensions reignite. That could happen quickly if Trump reprises a battle with France over taxing large tech firms like Google. Four years ago, tariffs on sparkling wine, cheese and makeup were only narrowly avoided and the core of that dispute remains unresolved.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

Trump’s ally in Brazil is former President Jair Bolsonaro, Lula's main political rival. Lula worries that Trump’s return may embolden the conservative political movement led by Bolsonaro, whose supporters attempted an insurrection against his government just one week after his inauguration last year.

On the eve of the US election, Lula said he was praying for Harris’s victory, adding that Trump had encouraged antidemocratic riots on the Capitol after losing reelection in 2021. Brazil’s finance ministry and central bank are also worried about the impact of Trump's tariffs and public spending plans, given the risks they fuel inflation and increase funding costs globally. Yet Brazil considers that, should Trump impose tariffs on China, the US will need to turn to the Brazilian market for its imports.

Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz

Trump’s loathing of Angela Merkel put a huge strain on US-German ties and Scholz was her finance minister and successor so it will be hard for him to shake off that connection. Germany has been on the receiving end of Trump’s decades-long fixation with its cars and trade surplus and will find itself in the firing line yet again. Germany’s automotive sector is the biggest industry in Europe’s largest economy and is highly exposed to the steep US import tariffs Trump plans to impose.

Scholz and his ruling coalition openly favored Harris over Trump as next US president. Trump is unlikely to have missed or forgotten those comments. So Scholz’s humbling message congratulating Trump in an X post is unlikely to wash. Also on the day Trump won, Scholz’s government is falling apart with the exit of his own finance minister, Christian Lindner, and he’s now calling for a snap election.