Explained | Why have so many Canadians turned on Justin Trudeau?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada is under intense pressure to step down after the abrupt and acrimonious resignation of a key deputy on Monday highlighted his deep unpopularity after nearly a decade in power.

On Friday, as Trudeau tried to save his leadership by rearranging his Cabinet, another prominent political ally turned on him, calling him a failed leader and vowing to bring down his government.

The ally, Jagmeet Singh of the New Democratic Party, released a scathing letter promising to bring a motion to defeat the government in the House of Commons after Parliament returns from a holiday break next month. According to a new poll by Ipsos, 73 per cent of Canadians think that Trudeau should resign as leader of the Liberal Party, including 43 per cent of Liberal voters.

Here's what to know about Trudeau's rise and fall, and what could happen next.

Who is Justin Trudeau?

Trudeau grew up in the spotlight as the son of Pierre Elliott Trudeau, a Canadian prime minister. In 2015, at age 43, he became Canada's second-youngest leader after his Liberal Party won a strong parliamentary majority. Trudeau was savvy with social media and enjoyed a long political honeymoon after his election. (He also had good hair.)

In 2017, Trudeau came under pressure to stand up to Donald Trump, the newly elected US president. As Trump restricted immigration, Trudeau restated Canada's openness to asylum-seekers, proclaiming, "Diversity is our strength."

During his time in office, Trudeau prioritized two issues. One was climate change. The other was reconciliation with Indigenous people, over the generational harms from a system of boarding schools that were rife with abuse. He also followed through on a pledge to legalize marijuana.

In 2019, the Liberals maintained their hold on power with Trudeau as their leader, but by a narrower margin, and they failed to secure a majority in Parliament. The Liberals needed support from smaller parties to advance Trudeau's legislative agenda.

During the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, Trudeau became the first Group of 7 leader to isolate himself, after his wife, Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, tested positive for COVID-19. (The couple are now separated.) The next year, when his approval ratings were still relatively high, he called a snap election, saying he wanted a strong mandate for his party to lead Canada out of the pandemic and into economic recovery.

Voters returned him to office in 2021, but the Liberals failed again to win a majority of votes in Parliament. Trudeau has since faced intense criticism from the Conservative opposition for some of his pandemic and recovery policies.

Why is his government unpopular?

Economy: Canada's post-pandemic inflation spiked to 8 per cent, though it has since receded below 2 per cent. Unemployment remains high, around 6.4 per cent. The Conservative opposition has hammered Trudeau's carbon-tax program.

Housing: The cost of housing in many major Canadian cities has become untenable. An economic analysis this year found that in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, British Columbia, prices would have to plummet, or incomes would have to improbably soar, to restore affordability.

Immigration: In October, Trudeau said he was tightening Canada's immigration policies after the country welcomed nearly 3 million people over three years, straining health care and other services. "In the tumultuous times as we emerged from the pandemic, between addressing labor needs and maintaining population growth, we didn't get the balance quite right," he said.

Scandals: In 2018, Trudeau was accused of groping a reporter in 2000, an allegation he rejected. A federal ethics commissioner in 2019 ruled that Trudeau tried to circumvent, undermine and discredit his former justice minister and attorney general, Jody Wilson-Raybould, in connection with a criminal case against SNC-Lavalin, a multinational engineering and construction firm based in Montreal. That same year, images surfaced of Trudeau wearing blackface or brownface as a student in the 1990s and as a teacher at a private prep school in 2001.

Infighting: Trudeau's hold on power slipped in September when the left-leaning New Democratic Party deprived Liberals of guaranteed support needed to pass legislation. This week, Chrystia Freeland, the deputy prime minister and finance minister, resigned abruptly, a stinging rebuke to Trudeau.

What will happen if Trudeau resigns?

If he steps down as party leader, he will no be longer prime minister. But how he might step down matters.

Trudeau has two options: He can say that he will step down when the party has a new leader, some weeks or months in the future.

Or he can step down immediately. In that case, the party would appoint an interim leader, who then could not run for the leadership under Liberal Party rules.

The next step would be to head to a federal election under the new Liberal leadership. Canada's next election must be held by October 2025, but a vote could be called or forced earlier.

The next federal election could be set off at any point through two means. Trudeau has the power to dissolve Parliament at any time, and that would lead to an election. Or, if the opposition were to defeat the Liberal government though a confidence motion or vote down a budget bill, the government would fall, and an election would follow.

Who are the top contenders to succeed him?

Conservatives: Pierre Poilievre has led the Conservative Party since 2022, branding himself as the anti-Trudeau, practical and down-to-earth. He supported a blockade of Canada's capital, Ottawa, Ontario, in 2022 led by truckers who opposed vaccine mandates and pandemic restrictions. Poilievre has been eyeing the top government spot since at least 1999, when as a university student he wrote an essay that won a cash prize about what he would do as prime minister.

Liberals: After her resignation this week, there was widespread speculation that Freeland would start her own bid to run the Liberal Party. Other contenders include Dominic LeBlanc, who became finance minister when Freeland resigned; Mélanie Joly, Canada's top diplomat since 2021; and Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada who also led the Bank of England.