Kerala Covid-19 cases, a worry

The sharp surge in Covid-19 infections in Kerala in recent weeks is distressing. As on October 17, the state’s caseload of coronavirus infections was 3,34,228, with 9,016 new cases reported that day. For months, Kerala’s handling of the pandemic was globally hailed as a model to be followed. Stringent surveillance and swift adoption and implementation of the World Health Organisation’s ‘test, trace, isolate and support’ protocol helped it keep infections down for several months. Despite the arrival of tens of thousands of expatriate workers from the Gulf countries, state health authorities seemed to have the situation under control. Then in early September, there was a noticeable change. The state, which was reporting an average of 2,000 new cases per day till then, saw a surge in daily infections. The number rose rapidly that month to touch 11,755 cases on October 10. While new infections have started falling, the numbers are still high. So what went wrong? Where did Kerala stumble? Ten days of festivities for Onam began on August 31, when caution regarding the coronavirus was thrown to the winds. Kerala was roiled in mass protests as well in September. Social distancing was ignored and few wore masks. The sharp increase in infections followed.

There is a silver lining, however, in the otherwise dreary Covid-19 situation in the state. Fatalities are low. There have been around 1,139 deaths due to Covid-19 so far. Kerala has a Covid-19 fatality rate of just 0.34%, which is far lower than the national average of 1.5%. What makes this low fatality rate all the more remarkable is the fact that Kerala has a large elderly population. People over 60 years of age comprise 13% of the population compared to the national average of about 8%. Covid-19 has hit the elderly the hardest worldwide but Kerala, despite its significant proportion of senior citizens, has managed to keep fatalities down. It is likely that the state’s robust public health infrastructure system, which has been built systematically over the decades by successive governments, is playing a role in keeping alive those infected by the deadly coronavirus.

Other state governments should draw lessons from Kerala’s experience. Daily infections are declining in many states at present. This could change in the coming weeks as India begins celebrating Dasara, Eid and Diwali. Millions are expected to pour into markets and places of worship and participate in public celebrations. If people violate social distancing norms and do not wear masks, infections will rise rapidly again. Unlike Kerala, the rest of India does not have health infrastructure to keep fatalities down.