Bengal to Kerala: Saffron push to the East and South

What the BJP could lose due to caste consolidation behind regional alliances and the Narendra Modi government’s dismal performance on jobs and farm crisis in the Hindi heartland and Western Indian states, the party is trying hard to make up through Hindu consolidation by whipping up religious passions in states that have big chunks of Lok Sabha seats but where the BJP had until recently little or no presence. Here is the low-down on what the BJP is doing and what its prospects are in Bengal and the North-East, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Kerala.

Bengal

BJP chief Amit Shah wants the party to win 23 of the 42 LS seats in a state in which it traditionally has had no presence and won only two seats even in the ‘Modi wave’ year of 2014. That is a tall task. Given the dearth of its own candidates to fight polls, BJP has resorted to poaching leaders from other parties. BJP has fielded two MPs and one MLA from the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and one MLA from CPM.

However, since 2014, BJP has gained some ground in Bengal using both turncoats from other parties as well as its Hindutva polarising tactics, revolving around Ram Navami celebrations and the NRC (National Register of Citizens) issue.

The party could increase its tally in the state by focusing on tribal areas such as Jhargram, Purulia and Birbhum seats, where it did exceedingly well in panchayat elections in May, fielding mainly tribal youth. It is also focusing on seats with substantial numbers of non-Bengali voters, such as Asansol and Medinipur.

Assam & NE

The BJP has intensified its polarisation tactics in Assam, which has 14 LS seats, while pushing hard to keep the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), a forum of its regional allies, intact.

The party managed to bring Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) back into the alliance just before the elections. BJP is contesting 10 seats, AGP three and Bodoland People’s Front one. AGP had quit the alliance in January, opposing the BJP’s pet project, the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill (CAB).

BJP has replaced its current MPs with younger candidates in five seats while both Modi and Amit Shah have repeatedly promised during campaigns to bring the CAB again in its bid to garner more Hindu votes. Hindu Bengalis, who constitute nearly 20% votes in the state, are its prime target. BJP is contesting both seats in Manipur, Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh, and supporting its ally NPP in one of the two seats in Meghalaya. It sees a bright chance of winning the two seats in Tripura. In Nagaland, it is supporting ally NDPP’s candidate, but in Mizoram, it has fielded a candidate against its NEDA partner Mizo National Front.

Tamil Nadu

The BJP has stitched together a rainbow alliance in Tamil Nadu while playing junior partner to AIADMK. The party is contesting only five of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, but hopes that the alliance will bring at least a dozen seats to the NDA kitty. This is the one state where the BJP is fully dependent on its ally to win seats, where it is trying polarisation not only along religious but also along caste lines, and where Prime Minister Modi has faced the maximum protests.

In the southern port city of Thoothukudi, BJP has fielded its state unit chief Tamilisai Soundararajan against DMK heavyweight and Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi, while its lone minister in the union cabinet from Tamil Nadu, Pon Radhakrishnan, is facing a tough battle in Kanyakumari. The BJP is also fighting tough battles in Sivaganga, Ramanathapuram and Coimbatore.

Odisha

Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal is struggling hard to fight anti-incumbency, though the party still has an edge over rivals BJP and Congress to win a majority of the 21 LS and 147 assembly seats in the ongoing polls. The BJD, in power for 19 years now, banks heavily on Patnaik’s personal clean image and his pro-poor and pro-farmer steps.

Congress, the principal opposition party, is in a shambles, dogged by infighting in the state unit, including over selection of candidates. On election eve, many of its leaders left to join either BJD or BJP.

The BJP has smelt a big opportunity to improve its position and has left no stone unturned. It has adopted a two-way strategy to grab the maximum number of LS and assembly seats. In 2014, it had won only one LS seat and 10 assembly seats.

First, it has reached out to people not through local party leaders but with PM Modi and party chief Amit Shah in the forefront explaining to them what the BJP will do for the state if voted to power. They have put out the “double engine” theory, saying that having a BJP government both at the Centre and in the state is like powering Odisha’s development train with two engines.

Second, they are fielding new candidates and rebels from BJD and Congress in the maximum number of seats. In 17 out of 21 LS seats, the party has fielded new candidates, including five BJD rebels and one from Congress.

Kerala

The BJP sees an opportunity to win one or two LS seats for the first time in Kerala. The party’s vote share is set to see a considerable rise all over the state as it has wooed Hindu votes with its aggressive stand against the Supreme Court verdict allowing the entry of women of reproductive age into Sabarimala temple.

The present trends indicate a good chance for the BJP in Thiruvananthapuram and Pathanamthitta. Thrissur, Palakkad and Kasargod are three other seats where BJP could do well. The higher presence of upper caste Hindu community members, especially the Nair community, is the key favourable factor for BJP.

In 2014, the BJP lost to Congress’ Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram by just 15,470 votes. O Rajagopal, who represented BJP, won the assembly election in 2016 to become the party’s first MLA in Kerala. The BJP has now brought back former state party chief Kummanam Rajasekharan, who was Mizoram Governor, to take on Tharoor. In Pathanamthitta, K Surendran, who led the Sabarimala stir, is the BJP candidate, but is up against two popular Christian candidates, Anto Antony (Congress) and Veena George (CPI).

The Nair Service Society maintains a politically neutral stance, but a large section of the community favours BJP on the Sabarimala issue. But as the BJP pins hopes on a Hindu vote consolidation, a counter consolidation of the minority communities seems to be happening, which could favour the Congress. Even the Left Front, which is concerned about the BJP’s rise in Kerala, could back Congress tactically to ensure that the BJP does not open its Lok Sabha account in Kerala.

(Soumya Das, Sumir Karmakar, ETB Sivapriyan, ST Beuria, Arjun Raghunath)