JOIN USBJP: Going south in North?
With two phases of voting done for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, broad indications emerging from the cow belt states of UP-Bihar to the tribal lands of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh is that there is no ‘wave’ this election to sweep voters off their feet as they were in 2014. And that spells trouble for the BJP/NDA, unless there is an ‘undercurrent’ in its favour that we have not felt yet.
In 2014, the BJP (and its allies) scored 90% or over of the Lok Sabha seats in the Hindi heartland states as well as in Maharashtra and Gujarat, winning 246 of the total 273 seats in UP (73/80), Maharashtra (42/48), Bihar (31/40), Madhya Pradesh (27/29), Gujarat (all 26), Rajasthan (all 25), Jharhand (12/14) and Chhattisgarh (10/11).
But with formidable caste alliances in place in states like UP, Bihar and Jharkhand, the coalition of Congress-NCP in Maharashtra and clear indications of some disenchantment with BJP in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh this time, the possibility of BJP repeating its 2014 performance in this vast swathe is dim. Indications are that the party’s seat tally could drop by 80 to 100 seats in these eight states alone.
Uttar Pradesh
Having stitched up a powerful caste combination, the SP-BSP-RLD ‘grand alliance’ is set to hurt BJP’s prospects in India’s electorally most important state. It may see its tally coming down by more than half.
BJP’s hopes for more seats ironically hinge on some revival of Congress after Priyanka Gandhi’s entry in UP politics and eating into ‘grand alliance’ votes. BJP is also grappling with dissent. Around a dozen sitting and former MPs are openly opposing the official nominees. To make matters worse, one of its allies, Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), has also fielded candidates.
Maharashtra
Maharashtra, with 48 LS seats -- next only to UP’s 80 -- is where the BJP has high hopes, after stooping low to keep its sulking ally Shiv Sena on board the NDA. In 2014, the saffron alliance, with help from the Swabhimani Shetkari Sangathan (SSS) won 42 seats. The SSS has since moved away from the BJP-Shiv Sena.
The ruling BJP encounters issues like farmers’ suicide, a severe drought affecting 50% of the geographical area, lack of irrigation facilities in Vidarbha and Marathwada, infrastructure bottlenecks and farmers’ unrest.
The Congress-NCP, which had won only six seats in 2014, will bridge the gap with BJP-SS. But the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, floated by BBM president Prakash Ambedkar and AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi, could play spoilsport. So could the SP and BSP, who, too, have put up candidates in the state.
Bihar
Strange, but the NDA in Bihar seems to have got an edge, thanks to the infighting in the Congress-RJD alliance, otherwise a strong caste-religion alliance that could beat any ‘Modi wave’ or Nitish’s credo of good governance. Still, the BJP-led NDA is unlikely to score the 31 of 40 LS seats that it did in 2014.
In theory, the ‘grand alliance’ sounds like a dominating one, with OBCs, EBCs (extremely backward castes), Muslims and Mahadalits and a fraction of upper castes under one umbrella. In reality, most of its constituents are at each other’s throats.
RJD has denied tickets to winnable Congress aspirants Shakeel Ahmad, Lovely Anand and Nikhil Kumar. And, by allotting 11 seats to non-entities like Mukesh Sahni (of VIP) and one-man parties like Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi, the alliance may have ceded ground to NDA, which could still win 25 seats.
Madhya Pradesh
After winning last year’s assembly election, Congress has set an ambitious target to wrest at least 15 of the 29 seats from BJP while retaining its bastions – Guna, Chhindwara and Ratlam-Jhabua. BJP, which had won 27 of 29 seats in 2014, is battling dissent and sabotage threats in a dozen seats. After the assembly poll loss, BJP has shunned mentioning former CM Shivaraj Singh Chauhan’s rule, while Congress CM Kamal Nath has taken a calculated risk, fielding a sizeable number of women and youth party workers. It could be a 17-12 game for BJP-Congress here.
Gujarat
Even in the Modi-Amit Shah duo’s home state, it looks unlikely that the BJP will do a 2014 encore, winning all 26 seats. Congress’ hopes are high after giving a tough fight to BJP in the last assembly polls. Rural voters, destitute labourers and marginal farmers are up in arms. The cotton and peanut growers of Saurashtra, which has seven LS seats, are up against the BJP for “not fulfilling promises.” North Gujarat’s Patan, Banaskantha and Sabarkantha seats, too, are giving the BJP sleepless nights.
In the bipolar contest in Gujarat, Congress has smartly selected candidates based on their local support bases. Eight of its candidates are sitting MLAs. BJP, on the other hand, has poached hundreds of Congress workers, including five MLAs in the past four months. In all, BJP could lose five to seven seats.
Rajasthan
Congress, which formed a government in 2018 in the state, is trying to contest as a united camp while the BJP is trying to put behind its assembly poll defeat and repeat the historic win of 2014, where it swept all 25 seats in the desert state. Former CM Vasundhara Raje has been relegated to the background in BJP while Congress CM Ashok Gehlot and Deputy CM Sachin Pilot are addressing rallies together to hammer home the message of unity. The caste card is something that both parties are playing. Riding on Modi’s popularity, the BJP can still win 15 to 18 seats here.
Jharkhand
In the tribal state mostly ruled by it since its inception in 2000, BJP could face a daunting task in 2019 as the Congress, JMM, the JVM(P) and the RJD have joined hands. BJP won 12 of the 14 seats here in 2014. Two seats were won by JMM. JVM(P), led by Jharkhand’s first CM Babulal Marandi, had then contested separately. The NDA had nearly 45% votes while the opposition alliance 38%. With no Modi wave this time, the united alliance is likely to come up on top in Jharkhand, even if only narrowly.
Chhattisgarh
The BJP won 10 out of 11 LS seats in 2014. There could be a reversal of fortunes this time after Congress’ stupendous victory in last year’s assembly polls. While BJP won only 15 of the 90 assembly seats, Congress won 68.
Notwithstanding the changed scenario, Congress is facing a tough battle with the BJP in five seats — Sarguja, Bilaspur, Raipur, Durg and Mahasamund. The saffron party has played a gamble by dropping all its sitting MPs and fielding new faces.
(With inputs from Sanjay Pandey, Mrityunjay Bose, Abhay Kumar, Rakesh Dikshit, Satish Jha, Tabeenah Anjum, Prakash Kumar)