Traditional allies, tactical moves: BJP tries to rebuild NDA

Last month, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party leader Om Prakash Rajbhar received a letter from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, congratulating the UP MLA on his son’s wedding. Rajbhar had broken away from the Bharatiya Janata Party ahead of the last Assembly polls and, in alliance with Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, inflicted extensive damage on the ruling party in the eastern districts bordering Bihar.

Post the Karnataka debacle, Rajbhar’s is not the only party the BJP has sought to woo back into the NDA fold. The list is long — from sub-regional potential allies and jet-setting provincial patriarchs to jilted friends. Political realignments are the talk of the town in the Delhi durbar as monsoon sets in and key contestants start to line up their forces for the next big battle in 2024.

In the first leg of restructuring, BJP has replaced party presidents in some states. Cabinet ministers have been deputed to the poll-bound states. More organisational changes are in the offing.

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The structure and size of the National Democratic Alliance 2.0 could be unveiled soon if the PM decides to reshuffle the Union Council of Ministers and onboard new allies ahead of the monsoon session of parliament.

As the Modi government completes nine years in office, the BJP has started to make tactical changes to cut down on the losses in states where it has plateaued and compensate for the possible deficit by breaking new grounds in the hitherto uncharted territory.

The call to action was set in motion at Raj Bhavan, Mumbai last Sunday when Ajit Anantrao Pawar walked in with eight other NCP legislators to join the NDA government in Maharashtra.

The outcome of the last two Assembly polls where BJP and Congress squared off in a one-on-one fight has forced the ruling dispensation to assess the current political paradigm and revisit the drawing board.

Gujarat remains an exception as AAP split the Opposition vote right down the middle.

“In Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, Congress could demonstrate its ability to win with or without resources in a straight fight with BJP,” says a leader from the south whose party has been a quasi-ally of the Modi government.

The challenge for the BJP is to ensure that the outcomes in these two states do not become a norm elsewhere where it is pitted in a direct contest against the Congress.

Read | From weakening NCP & Sena (UBT) to denting MVA: BJP accomplishes many goals in Maharashtra

Not just that, Congress, in both HP and Karnataka, could stitch an alternative economic narrative by doling out freebies in abundance to create its own ‘labharthi’ or beneficiary constituency. In its quest to add new social groups to its existing kitty, Congress is willing to play aggressive caste politics by propping up strong regional satraps who can mobilise community votes.

BJP’s search for new allies has also been triggered by the efforts in the Opposition camp to ensure a one-on-one fight against the BJP and its allies in at least 400 Lok Sabha constituencies.

In terms of communication and media management, the Opposition is fast catching up with the BJP. Their audience engagement in both social and legacy media has grown. Events are planned well in advance so as to not let BJP have a field run. The first meeting of the Opposition parties in Patna coincided with PM Modi’s state visit to the US. While TV stations beamed the PM’s events at night due to time lag, during the day, the Opposition could eke out a fair share of air time.

Under Modi’s leadership, while the BJP has conquered new territories, the NDA has shrunk over the years. There was less space for the regional parties as BJP refused to play second fiddle to the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Shiv Sena, Janata Dal, and Akali Dal, who left the NDA one by one.

Even for the sake of optics, to match the impressive line-up at the Patna plenary, BJP has to look beyond its current partners in the northeast and Ramdas Athawale’s Republican Party of India (A).

So the hunt for new allies has begun in earnest.

Assessment

In June, BJP President J P Nadda held a series of meetings with Home Minister Amit Shah and the general secretary in charge of the organisation B L Santosh. A few of the deliberations were also attended by RSS leaders who coordinate with the BJP.

The stock-taking exercise culminated with a meeting between the three and the Prime Minister.

Based on the feedback and a SWOT analysis, BJP has divided the political landscape of the country into three zones or sectors.

North, central and western states comprising the entire north belt and the heartland states where BJP is on a strong footing have been clubbed together to create a sector.

The eastern sector includes the entire northeast, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha. In most of these states, BJP has found a toehold but regional parties continue to hold sway.

The third list comprises the states which lie south of the Vindhyas, plus Maharashtra. These states have been a problem area for the party.

Course correction

In early June, TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu flew into Delhi to meet Amit Shah and J P Nadda. The former Andhra CM had quit NDA on a bitter note and had even supported Congress in the 2018 Assembly elections in Telangana.

The meeting was a spillover effect of the Karnataka poll outcome which has changed the dynamics in the southern states where Congress has the ability to recoup.

BJP’s first priority in the southern cluster is to ensure that it is able to at least match its previous tally. The party would not mind as much if its tactical allies like Bharat Rashtra Samithi, Biju Janata Dal, or YSR Congress Party gain seats in their respective areas of influence. What it does not want is Congress mopping up seats at the cost of regional parties who have all along had a fine working relationship with the Modi government.

This is straight out of the Left-Congress playbook of yore where the Congress left three states — West Bengal, Kerala, and Tripura — for the former to subsist.

In Karnataka, BJP realises the importance of keeping former CM B S Yeddyurappa in good humour, at least till the 2024 polls.

BJP’s biggest strength remains Gujarat and UP. One is Modi’s home state, and the other he adopted in 2014 to make a foray into heartland politics. In the last two elections, BJP won 98 and 88 seats out of 106 in these two states.

“Of the 80 seats in UP, it is only Mainpuri (district) — Mulayam Singh Yadav’s stronghold that we could never win even once since Independence. It is our effort to do (so) this time around,” says UP BJP State Vice President Vijay Bahadur Pathak.

However, the cause of concern remains another bunch of 100 seats in three states where BJP has lost traditional allies — Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, JD(U) in Bihar and Akali Dal in Punjab.

By bringing Ajit Pawar on board, BJP is trying to create a new social combination of OBCs and Marathas to minimise possible losses in its 2019 tally in Maharashtra. In Bihar, Jitan Ram Manjhi has joined the NDA. Party wants uncle and nephew Pashupati Kumar Paras and Chirag Paswan to stay, bury the hatchet and call for a truce.

The BJP has sought to carve a new constituency among the OBCs, which was once a JD(U) vote base, says BJP OBC Front General Secretary Nikhil Anand. “BJP has given representation to marginalised communities, like sending Shambhu Sharan Patel from the Dhanuk community to the Rajya Sabha,” he adds.

Ahead of the monsoon session of parliament, BJP is expected to call a meeting of its allies. Those in attendance would define the contours of the NDA’s new playing eleven.