<p>New Delhi: India's current account deficit is likely to decline to a three-quarter low of 1 per cent of GDP in October-December 2024 period and may turn into surplus in the fourth quarter of FY25 due lower imports, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said on Monday.</p>.<p>In absolute terms, the CAD is estimated to decline to $10 billion in Q3 of the current financial year from $11.2 billion or 1.2 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) recorded in the second quarter.</p>.<p>Ind-Ra expects the merchandise exports to increase to a four-quarter high of around $114 billion in January-March quarter of the current fiscal. The merchandise imports, however, are expected to moderate to around $174 billion in Q4 due to lower imports of essential commodities.</p>.<p>Overall, Ind-Ra expects the goods trade deficit to decline to around $60 billion in the January-March quarter. The merchandise trade deficit is likely to be largely offset by the surplus in services trade. The rating agency said in a note that India’s services trade surplus is likely to jump by 21.8 per cent year-on-year to $52 billion in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal.</p>.Indian markets, rupee reverse 2025’s losses.<p>“All in all, Ind-Ra expects current account balance (CAB) to turn into a surplus of under 1 per cent of GDP in Q4,” said Paras Jasrai, Senior Analyst & Economist, Ind-Ra.</p>.<p>In the October-December quarter merchandise exports were up 3.2% year-on-year. Sequentially, goods exports moved up to $109.0 billion in 3Q from a 12-quarter low of $103.5 billion in Q2.</p>.<p>This was due to the combination of a favourable base effect (Q3 FY24: 1 per cent year-on-year) and a pick-up in demand from major expor</p>
<p>New Delhi: India's current account deficit is likely to decline to a three-quarter low of 1 per cent of GDP in October-December 2024 period and may turn into surplus in the fourth quarter of FY25 due lower imports, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said on Monday.</p>.<p>In absolute terms, the CAD is estimated to decline to $10 billion in Q3 of the current financial year from $11.2 billion or 1.2 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) recorded in the second quarter.</p>.<p>Ind-Ra expects the merchandise exports to increase to a four-quarter high of around $114 billion in January-March quarter of the current fiscal. The merchandise imports, however, are expected to moderate to around $174 billion in Q4 due to lower imports of essential commodities.</p>.<p>Overall, Ind-Ra expects the goods trade deficit to decline to around $60 billion in the January-March quarter. The merchandise trade deficit is likely to be largely offset by the surplus in services trade. The rating agency said in a note that India’s services trade surplus is likely to jump by 21.8 per cent year-on-year to $52 billion in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal.</p>.Indian markets, rupee reverse 2025’s losses.<p>“All in all, Ind-Ra expects current account balance (CAB) to turn into a surplus of under 1 per cent of GDP in Q4,” said Paras Jasrai, Senior Analyst & Economist, Ind-Ra.</p>.<p>In the October-December quarter merchandise exports were up 3.2% year-on-year. Sequentially, goods exports moved up to $109.0 billion in 3Q from a 12-quarter low of $103.5 billion in Q2.</p>.<p>This was due to the combination of a favourable base effect (Q3 FY24: 1 per cent year-on-year) and a pick-up in demand from major expor</p>