Economy to grow by 7.5 per cent, subject to conditions: Survey

"If the US economy bottoms out by September, 2009, there could be good possiblity for the Indian economy repeating its 2008-09 performance, 7+- 0.75 per cent in the fiscal 2009-10 (assuming a normal monsoon)," said the survey tabled in Parliament.

However, the pattern of growth in the current fiscal may be reversed. Unlike 2008-09, the growth may not be high in the first two quarters, but the last two quarters may result in improved growth, the survey said.

Last fiscal, the economy grew more than 7.5 per cent in the first two quarters, but the growth dwindled after US iconic financial firm Lehman Brothers collapsed. As a result, the last two quarters returned growth of just 5.8 per cent.

Indian economy grew by 6.7 per cent last fiscal, a decline of 2.1 per cent from the average growth rate of 8.8 per cent in the previous five years, the survey said.

A number of projections have been made for the Indian economic growth for the current fiscal by many analysts, bodies, RBI and multi-lateral agencies.

These range from a low of 4.8 per cent by ICRIER, to a high of 6.5 to 7.5 per cent by ICRA.