<p>New Delhi: Moody's Analytics, a division of global rating agency Moody’s, on Thursday lowered India’s economic growth projection for the 2025 calendar year by 30 basis points to 6.1% citing threats to sectors like gems and jewellery, textiles and medical devices from the US tariffs.</p>.<p>In March the rating agency had pegged India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 at 6.4%.</p>.<p>“The US is one of India’s largest trading partners, so a 26% tariff hovering over imports of Indian goods will heavily impede the trade balance,” Moody’s Analytics said in a note.</p>.Trump's tariff pause leaves CEOs puzzled about what happens in 90 days.<p>Last week, US President Donald Trump announced imposition of reciprocal tariffs on 60 countries, including India, effective April 9. However, the Trump administration on Wednesday announced a 90-day pause on the implementation of high tariffs, except for China.</p>.<p>“Although US President Donald Trump has just declared a 90-day freeze on most of the harsh tariffs announced a week ago and applied a 10% blanket tariff in their place, the April baseline represents the economic toll they will have, should they eventually go ahead in full," Moody's Analytics said.</p>.<p>The rating agency noted that the Trump administration’s tariff move has created uncertainty leading to turbulence in the stock markets.</p>.<p>“Households won’t want to spend more when the environment is so uncertain, regardless of stronger purchasing power, and businesses will hold back on additional investment as they navigate (the) chaos,” it said.</p>.<p>Moody's Analytics revised down its growth projections for many Asia-Pacific countries. The decline in India’s GDP growth is projected to be less when compared with other countries like China, Vietnam and Taiwan, which have high export dependency.</p>.<p>Moody's Analytics report comes a day after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lowered its India’s GDP growth projection for the financial year 2025-26 by 20 basis points to 6.5%. While Moody's Analytics projection is for the period January to December 2025, the RBI’s estimate is for April 2025 to March 2026 period. </p>.<p>RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has cited US tariffs as the key reasons for downward revision of economic growth projection.</p>.<p>As per the National Statistics Office (NSO) second advance estimates, India’s GDP likely expanded by 6.5% in the financial year ended March 2025. The economic growth rebounded to 6.2% in the October-December 2025 period from 5.6% in the previous three-month.</p>.<p>For April-June quarter the RBI has pegged the growth at 6.5%. It is projected to rise to 6.7% in July-September period but will moderate to 6.6% and 6.3% in Q3 and Q4 of the current financial year, respectively, as per the RBI estimate.</p>
<p>New Delhi: Moody's Analytics, a division of global rating agency Moody’s, on Thursday lowered India’s economic growth projection for the 2025 calendar year by 30 basis points to 6.1% citing threats to sectors like gems and jewellery, textiles and medical devices from the US tariffs.</p>.<p>In March the rating agency had pegged India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 at 6.4%.</p>.<p>“The US is one of India’s largest trading partners, so a 26% tariff hovering over imports of Indian goods will heavily impede the trade balance,” Moody’s Analytics said in a note.</p>.Trump's tariff pause leaves CEOs puzzled about what happens in 90 days.<p>Last week, US President Donald Trump announced imposition of reciprocal tariffs on 60 countries, including India, effective April 9. However, the Trump administration on Wednesday announced a 90-day pause on the implementation of high tariffs, except for China.</p>.<p>“Although US President Donald Trump has just declared a 90-day freeze on most of the harsh tariffs announced a week ago and applied a 10% blanket tariff in their place, the April baseline represents the economic toll they will have, should they eventually go ahead in full," Moody's Analytics said.</p>.<p>The rating agency noted that the Trump administration’s tariff move has created uncertainty leading to turbulence in the stock markets.</p>.<p>“Households won’t want to spend more when the environment is so uncertain, regardless of stronger purchasing power, and businesses will hold back on additional investment as they navigate (the) chaos,” it said.</p>.<p>Moody's Analytics revised down its growth projections for many Asia-Pacific countries. The decline in India’s GDP growth is projected to be less when compared with other countries like China, Vietnam and Taiwan, which have high export dependency.</p>.<p>Moody's Analytics report comes a day after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lowered its India’s GDP growth projection for the financial year 2025-26 by 20 basis points to 6.5%. While Moody's Analytics projection is for the period January to December 2025, the RBI’s estimate is for April 2025 to March 2026 period. </p>.<p>RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has cited US tariffs as the key reasons for downward revision of economic growth projection.</p>.<p>As per the National Statistics Office (NSO) second advance estimates, India’s GDP likely expanded by 6.5% in the financial year ended March 2025. The economic growth rebounded to 6.2% in the October-December 2025 period from 5.6% in the previous three-month.</p>.<p>For April-June quarter the RBI has pegged the growth at 6.5%. It is projected to rise to 6.7% in July-September period but will moderate to 6.6% and 6.3% in Q3 and Q4 of the current financial year, respectively, as per the RBI estimate.</p>