Foodgrain output set to scale new peak in 2025 as farm sector eyes 4% growth

New Delhi: India is poised to achieve new heights in foodgrain production in 2025, driven by favourable monsoon, though significant challenges persist in pulses and oilseeds production as the country's agricultural sector shows signs of robust recovery.

The Agriculture Ministry's initial projections paint an optimistic picture, with kharif (summer) foodgrain production estimated at a record 164.7 million tonnes for the 2024-25 crop year ending June 2025.

Winter crop planting has maintained steady progress, with wheat sown across 29.31 million hectares as of mid-December 2024, while total rabi (winter) crops cover 55.88 million hectares.

"We had a good kharif crop because of normal rainfall," Agriculture Secretary Devesh Chaturvedi told PTI.

"Overall, the crop prospect for the whole year looks promising," he added, though cautioning against potential heat waves in February-March that could affect the winter wheat harvest.

The agricultural sector is projected to bounce back strongly, with growth projections of 3.5-4 per cent in 2024-25, up from 1.4 per cent in the previous fiscal year.

Agri-economist S Mahendra Dev attributes this improvement to "good monsoon and rise in rural demand".

This growth comes despite localised floods and droughts affecting crops in parts of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Climate change-induced weather anomalies have particularly impacted onion and tomato yields in certain regions.

However, the path ahead isn't without hurdles.

To address the persistent challenge of self-sufficiency in pulses and oilseeds, the government will roll out the National Mission on Edible Oils - Oilseeds (NMEO-Oilseeds) in 2025, backed by a substantial budget of Rs 10,103 crore. The initiative aims to reduce import dependency through targeted interventions and increased support prices.

The horticulture sector has shown remarkable progress, with record production of fruits and vegetables. The success is attributed to improved farming practices and technology adoption under various government schemes.

The sector is witnessing increased technological adoption, with drones and AI-driven tools gaining traction. "These innovations offer immense potential to enhance productivity," said Ashish Dobhal, CEO of UPL Sustainable AgriSolutions.

The government's flagship PM-KISAN scheme continues to provide crucial support, having disbursed over Rs 3.46 lakh crore to more than 11 crore farmers since its 2018 launch.

Seven new agricultural schemes announced in September 2024, with a combined outlay of Rs 13,966 crore, are set for full implementation in 2025. These initiatives span various aspects of agriculture, including digital transformation, crop science, livestock health, and natural resource management.

However, farmer unrest remains a concern, particularly in Punjab and Haryana, where demands for legal MSP guarantees and other reforms persist.

A parliamentary committee has suggested doubling the PM-KISAN support to Rs 12,000 per beneficiary and implementing universal crop insurance for small farmers.

While farmer-producer organisations (FPOs) have expanded with 9,204 registrations, they continue to face challenges, including limited market access and weak managerial capacity, potentially affecting their long-term sustainability.

Looking ahead, the agriculture ministry plans to conduct a benchmarking study comparing its crop insurance scheme PMFBY with similar programs globally, aiming to adopt best practices within the PMFBY ecosystem.

While government schemes have shown varied levels of success, experts note that many require revision and targeted intervention to address specific challenges in the farm sector effectively. "Only a few of the central schemes have been impactful, while the rest need a re-look," Dev observed.

The coming year will be crucial for India's agricultural sector as it balances traditional farming practices with technological innovation while addressing persistent challenges in food security and farmer welfare.

The success of new initiatives and their implementation will likely determine the sector's trajectory toward sustainable growth and self-sufficiency in key crop categories.

Key concerns remain regarding MSP implementation effectiveness and high input costs, particularly for fertilisers and pesticides. The sector's ability to address these challenges while maintaining production growth will be crucial for achieving its ambitious targets for 2025.