South Asia will need 2,705 new airplanes by 2042: Boeing forecast

Hyderabad: South Asia, including India, will need 2,705 new airplanes by 2042. American aircraft manufacturer Boeing forecasted that the South Asia region will become the fastest-growing commercial aviation market with more than 8 per cent annual traffic growth over the next 20 years.

Supported by a strong economy, India’s rapidly expanding middle class will drive growth in regional air travel.

Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which is an annual forecast of 20-year demand for commercial airplanes and related services, found that carriers will require more than 2,700 new airplanes to address growth and fleet replacement in the next 20 years.

The Boeing’s CMO report that was released on the sidelines of the ongoing aviation event ‘Wings India 2024’ in Hyderabad also highlighted volatile fuel prices, currency pressure, low yields, infrastructure, market share imbalance and hyper-competition among other challenges faced by the Indian aviation sector.

“Indian low-cost carriers continue to stimulate demand and connect emerging regions with low fares, holding nearly a 90 per cent share of all domestic seats in the region. This reflects the rapid pace of the region’s recovery and economic activity, as traffic and capacity now exceed pre-pandemic levels,” said Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing, Darren Hulst on the sidelines of ‘Wings India 2024’.

“Similarly, long-haul traffic and capacity to and from India and South Asia lead the way globally, relative to 2019, as nonstop services to North America, Europe, East Asia and Oceania continue to be added. Strong economic growth and confidence in the commercial aviation market have led to record orders for new, more efficient airplanes in India,” he added.

Boeing also forecasted that South Asia region will require 37,000 pilots and 38,000 maintenance technicians over the next 20 years, driven primarily by the growing demand in India.

Of the 2,705 new deliveries, 72 per cent will support fleet growth, while 28 per cent will replace older jets with more fuel-efficient models. Single-aisle airplanes will account for more than 85 per cent of new airplane deliveries.

Growth of India’s middle class, tourism and manufacturing will help the country’s aviation sector soar high.

The CMO projects that India’s GDP will grow four times to $15T output by 2050 from 2022 figures

India cargo fleet will grow to 80 airplanes

With 5 times market growth opportunity, Boeing’s CMO also forecasted that India’s cargo fleet will grow to 80 airplanes over next 20 years. Currently, India has only 15 freighter aircrafts and with 7 per cent GDP growth projection, e-commerce, expanding middle class, the cargo fleet requirement is expected to go up.

The CMO felt that regional cargo expansion with ASEAN and Middle East economic partnerships, manufacturing and supply chain redesign are benefitting India that will propel air cargo growth with a requirement for 20 plus new cargo aircraft in the next 20 years.

Similarly, global trade & manufacturing with a thrust on 'Make in India' by the Union government, pharmaceutical/auto trade links, redrawing of global supply chains and technology manufacturing needs 15 plus wide body airplanes in the next two decades.