With record GST collections expected in January at Rs 1.21-1.23 lakh crore, the shortfall in state GST can be narrowed to a minimal Rs 11,000 crore, according to a report.
Ongoing efforts to plug the leakages in GST collection has been bearing fruit since September.
After clocking record collections in December 2020 at Rs 1.15 lakh crore, the January 2021 GST collection is expected to be in the range of Rs 1.21-1.23 lakh crore and may still have an upside, SBI Research said in a noted on Thursday.
If 50 per cent of the IGST collected is disbursed to the states by March, then the state GST shortfall can narrow down to only a minimal Rs 11,000 crore after taking into account the full compensation cess, the report added.
Meanwhile, the government's surplus cash balances have increased significantly recently to Rs 3.34 lakh crore as on January 28, from Rs 1.08 lakh crore in September 2020 and Rs 2.26 lakh crore in December.
It has helped the government borrow marginally less. As of January 22, it had borrowed Rs 11.46 lakh crore, and the remaining gross borrowing of Rs 1.6 lakh crore is expected as per the calendar year, taking the total gross borrowing to Rs 13.03 lakh crore, lower than Rs 13.10 lakh crore earlier.
The SGST collection for states is 12 per cent lower at Rs 1.87 lakh crore in April-December 2020 and the allocated IGST is 13 per cent lower at Rs 1.26 lakh crore.
The GST cess collection has stood at Rs 60,312 crore, 17 per cent lower than last year. The combined amount of SGST, allocated IGST and cess stands at Rs 3.73 lakh crore, which is 13 per cent lower but is equal to 58 per cent of their budgeted SGST of Rs 6.49 lakh crore.
If the Centre keeps 60 per cent of the IGST revenue, then the states could be staring at a shortfall of around Rs 67,000 crore.