A step forward

The barter deal between the US and North Korea, arrived at in Beijing,  is a step forward in breaking the logjam over Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile development programme. It may be too early to call it a major breakthrough after the six-nation talks had broken down in 2009, but it  may prepare the ground for creating the right environment for resumption of the talks. The US has called the agreement important but limited because it feels there is a long way to go before it can hope to persuade North Korea to denuclearise itself.  The Beijing deal involves a commitment by North Korea to suspend its nuclear weapon tests, uranium enrichment and long-range missile development and to grant permission for IAEA inspectors to monitor the activities at its main reactor, in return for a 240,000 tonnes food aid from the US. Pyongyang had expelled IAEA inspectors in 2002 and conducted its first nuclear test in 2006.

A similar agreement in 2007 by which North Korea had agreed to halt work at its nuclear complex in return for aid had fallen through later in the midst of mutual accusations of violation of terms. But the Beijing agreement may still be significant because it is the first international deal made by North Korea after the change of guard last year when Kim Jong-un succeeded his father Kim Jong-il. Talks about talks were going on even during Kim Jong-il’s time and the new leadership may be trying to look reasonable when it wants to consolidate its position. North Korea has suffered severe food shortage for years and the aid might strengthen the position of the leadership at home.

The real value of the deal lies in whether it can lead to resumption of the stalled talks. There is a view that North Korea may use the deal to buy time and declare it dead after some time like in the case of the earlier one. There may yet be disagreements over the terms of the deal. There is also suspicion that North Korea has got enrichment facilities other than the one covered by the deal. In spite of these doubts and reservations, the deal has created a better atmosphere and lowered tensions in the region. China, which is the most important mediator in the negotiations, has hoped that the agreement will lead to comprehensive talks.